Dear AMPTP: Here's How You Avoid A Strike

Bravo Craig. This is smart. There are many people involved on both sides of this issue - appealing to reason will certainly be more effective in reaching a compromise rather than emotional communications. Communication is a two-way street and the foundation of any negotiation. Oh well, who am I fooling? Let’s hug it out…

Ah. There it is. What I’ve been waiting for.

Great post, Craig.

Thanks, Craig, for your continuous updates on the negotiations. I appreciate your appeal to each side to see reason, but I still think the strike is gonna happen. I don’t think it’ll be of long duration (less than 2 weeks), but both sides have so much to prove (the WGA, that they’re deadly serious; and the AMPTP, that they won’t cave first). I’m not in the WGA, but I plan to be, and the outcome has far reaching ramifications even to us newbies, so…fingers crossed for a legitimate compromise.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quisling

Craig,

“There is no revenge so complete as forgiveness.” But who will forgive first?

Anon #4,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asshole

Craig—

I know for you there is only one issue, ie “the only one that matters”, but is that perception reflective of the membership as a whole? ie, when you say “and let’s face it…the result won’t be any different either” regarding DVD residual changes, it seems you’re kind of playing it out like if there’s a strike, both sides will winnow out everything they’ve got on the table until it winds down to that one point.

I’m not entirely convinced though that everything but Internet Internet Internet is just window dressing and posturing. Because a protracted strike could really change the rules, the whole model, whether in our favor— or against it. Historically, strikes can fizzle out, but they CAN and have lead to radical changes/models/paradigms.

You seem to be saying, “let’s cut all this other crap and just deal with the one real thing on the table” but I’m wondering if some of the other issues (maybe even on both sides) may have built up enough momentum over the years that the status quo actually might actually shift from a strike. Not saying it’ll turn out the way we want, but I kinda get the feeling this strike is the accumulation of 20 years of resentment with the Internet issue only being the cherry on top.

Then again, I could be wrong.

AYAAetc

AYAAW,

Dude, the DVD boat has sailed. Even if we didn’t already cave on this issue years and years ago, DVD sales are going down and will play second fiddle to New Media (I’m not arguing DVDs will disappear btw, I’m saying let go).

Internet is a new… water vessel. So when it casts off, like DVDs did, this time around we’re… sailing.

It’s true that those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it, but it’s equally true that those who live in the past forget about the future and vice versa.

The sea, being Hollywood, may be full of sharks, but the water is calm, being the audience, and our boat, being us, is skookum. Why do we insist on sinking the boat and troubling the water? Why do I insist on convoluting my point?

Anon #4,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skookum

SML-

no doubt you’re right that the heydey for DVD is peaking/peaked, but don’t you think there’re a few good years left in it? I was talking this over w/a friend… like, okay so VHS is dead. It had a run from the late 70s/early 80s or so to a couple years ago when DVDs pretty much obsoleted it. So what percent of the US has broadband now? Am I reading this right that it’s at about 50 million currently out of a 300 million population? I’m probably misreading, but it’s surely nothing compared to DVD player saturation— and unfortunately not growing like in other countries for various political and technical reasons. Broadband/streaming can be done via cable too as well as satellite, but regardless, I suspect DVDs are still going to be around for long enough where it’s worthwhile to try to sweeten the old deal— or at the very least use a concession in bettering the DVD formula to better the streaming one. You’re right- I have no statistical projections and hard numbers here, but c’mon, DVDs (including BlueRay and HD-DVD which are just now being introduced) have to have at least 5 or 6 more years where they’re gonna matter, albeit less each year as streaming takes over and the Internet market grows. I think I bought my first DVD in ‘95. So they’ve been mainstream for about 12 years. Six more years is about a 1/3d of my completely spitballed estimate of DVD’s relevance in the market. Even if it’s the latter third of the bell-curve, that’s still gotta represent billions, don’tcha think?

AYAAW

Ayaaw,

Look, we bent to Wasserman and his plumber analogy long ago. We have to give it up. They beat us. And they’re going to keep beating us (and themselves) if we’re not careful.

Sure, it would be great to double our DVD resids and for 5-6 years live fat (not as fat as you might think btw). But if we strike for more than three months our bread and butter, America, will move onto halo 4 or, as I’ve said before, porno. We’re already losing them. HEROES is tanking. LOST tanked last year. People have a short attention span and will stop supporting our careers. Not because they’re mean or stupid, but because they’re addicts and will find a new, entertainment teat to suck.

We’re fighting to stay relevant and a strike fucks that up. So, we better be sure that what we’re fighting for is worth it. DVDs ain’t worth it, my friend. Those egotistical fuckers on the AMPTP side will say, “Fuck you” and put their money behind that new teat America is suckling.

If we can trim the fat, avoid a strike or, at least, strike for something worthy of our effort, we’ll buy ourselves time to develop new formulas, to stay relevant.

I’m being over dramatic, I hope, and I’m not arguing this system is not fucked up the wazoo. We need to learn from our mistakes, not let them drag us down, and we need to stop being afraid.

Here’s a rule. Never mention Lost and Heroes in the same sentence, let alone the same paragraph. That’s like mentioning Michael Jordan and some guy benching on the special ed high school team (if there were such a thing).

And Craig:

Fucking nice. The majority of the WGA is behind you on this one.

Yeah, LOST rules. Definitely. Yeah.

Hmm. If you’re right that writers are as irrelevant or at least as vulnerable in this brave new world marketplace as you say, then the game is already lost, strike or not. It would be as hopeless and desperate for writers to try to maintain their position in the entertainment industry as the MPAA/RIAA has been trying to preserve their pre-digital business models in the face of new technologies. (DRM, cough)

And I’m not saying you’re necessarily wrong about that. The world may be changing so fast, technologically, economically (via the rise of mega-conglomerate entertainments companies, world markets, etc.), and in terms of viewer taste (reality & porn over film and narrative TV) that striking over something other than Internet residuals represents nothing more than an outdated profession in total denial of their growing irrelevance.

But if this is the case, whether we strike or not probably won’t make much difference one way or another. We’re screwed either way. It’s an adapt-or-die scenario you’re talking about, and not-striking might only delay the inevitable heat death of our profession.

And on that note…I seriously need a nap.

AYAAW

SML, you and I are on the same page 101% of the time. But I’ll ignore the issue at hand, ignore the strike, and tell you to go fuck yourself if you’re being sarcastic about my comment. Heroes is, and will always be, the dumbest version of Lost imaginable. Lost isn’t always perfect, and at times can be a mess, but it will never be the retarded mess that Heroes is at the moment.

I said I was being over dramatic ?

I think our profession, as we know it, is dying. And if not dying, evolving.

There will always be people who watch movies just like there will always be people who read books, but, like books, film/tv may not be the cash cow they once were.

A better example of near extinction: short stories. They were pushed to the fringes by the introduction of a new technology – TV/Film. Hemmingway, Fitzgerald, Chandler, Faulkner… these boys refined their style and put a roof over their heads at the same time just by writing short stories. Then it dried up, and the only way for them to survive was to play to their public image or write for Hollywood or both. And, even then, they couldn’t survive it. Hemmingway, Fitzgerald, Chandler, Faulkner… all of them icons, heroes, couldn’t survive the evolution to new entertainment.

Eh, I’m just fear mongering. We’ll be fine.

Have a good sleep.

How likely is it that the WGA would actually use such a gesture as a sign that a deal is possible? Isn’t it just as likely that they will continue to use a strike in order to force the issue on the one important point that would remain?

I’m sure the AMPTP would love to swap take those things off the table in exhange for the WGA taking the strike off the table, but where would that leave the writers? Do they have anything other then the strike to bargin with?

LOST rules. It really does. I actually think, even though they won’t admit it, this stream of consciousness style is genius. Really.

I think LOST tanked because it lost that stream of consciousness vibe… for a while. They had all their pigeons in a row and it became redundant and boring… until the last finale.

Heroes is insulting, although I am intrigued by the filmmaker driven episodes coming from their Origin series. Another reason not to strike, thank you very much.

Sometimes I feel like this guy:

http://thetravisty.com/KidsInTheHall/wmv/LonelySarcastic_Guy.html

The link didn’t work, but trust me when I say, “Super hilarious and relevant.”

Sleep, sleep time.

P.S. Lief, not sure Craig was saying we should pull the strike off the table. I think he was saying we might push the strike back if the AMPTP was willing to dump its bullshit.

The question with DVDs isn’t whether we’re morally in the right or not; it isn’t whether the format will survive for two years or ten years or thirty years; it’s whether we’re going to convince the membership of the AMPTP to raise the rate or not. And we’re not. We’re just not. I have never heard them any more sincere than when they have said, repeatedly, “That is never going to happen.” (And they say plenty of things that are purest, finest bullshit. This just happens not to be one of them.)

DVD is the place where their bread is currently buttered. They understand it (unlike Internet). They have profit projections based on it—projections which they actually believe in, and are relying upon to meet their current and mid-range goals (again, unlike Internet). Prices of DVDs are more or less fixed at this point as well, so they can’t pass along any increases in their costs to the consumer. It is, as they say, a mature business model.

And the cold reality is that giving us what we want would fuck with the near-term-future profit margins that they’ve sold to their corporate parents, their stockholders, everyone in the world that they actually do care about—not so much because paying writers a higher rate would be prohibitively expensive, but because the directors and actors will also be waiting in the wings the moment they do it. (And it’s worth remembering that not every member of the AMPTP is owned by G.E. or Sony. There are companies in that collective that are essentially making their money from nothing but this at the moment, and the thought of tinkering with the underlying formula they’ve come to rely on is about as appealing to them as redefining the meaning of “residuals” was to us.)

It’s a nice thought, and it’s a just thought, but it’s not going to happen.

Whereas the thing about the internet is…they really don’t know where it’s going. They really don’t know exactly where the money is yet. On that much, we can take them at their word. But because of that, they have far less to lose—within the kinds of time frames that investor/shareholder-driven companies typically care about—by acceding to a better deal with us on the online front than we’re currently getting with DVDs. If we get a decent payment structure in place now, then by the time the money begins to shift in that direction in any significant quantities, it’ll just be part of the landscape, and whatever business models do grow up and succeed online will have factored in the reality of needing to pay us (and the directors, and the actors) as an inherent cost of doing business from the outset. And given the massively lower costs of distribution, they’ll do just fine anyway, and so will we. Which is presumably what we’re all hoping for in the end.

Believe them when they say they’ll fight to the death over DVD increases. They will.

When they say the same thing about the internet…that’s bullshit. None of them have enough riding on it this year to make it worth what a strike would cost them this year. And stockholders are not known for being long-term thinkers; they don’t give a shit how much money your massive loss this year might end up earning for you half a decade down the road. And if you’re the executive in charge at the time of that massive short-term loss, you’re highly unlikely to still be employed by the time those future gains come rolling in, so you don’t have any good reason to give a shit about them either.

Businesses always protect the existing, profitable model at the expense of the new, unproven model. Always. We’re in a position to exploit that, because collectively, we have such a small stake in the existing model that we can afford (with great public hand-wringing and gnashing of teeth and rending of garments, if need be) to let it stand exactly as it is in exchange for a real piece of the new model.

Internet is the battle that matters because it’s the battle we can win.

The moral righteousness of the things we can’t win is irrelevant. Especially if pursuing them cuts into the one we can.

And Craig,

Allow me to second the “Bravo” that opened these comments. Out of the park, sir. Into the next park. Wouldn’t change a word.

(And would all the people [only one so far in this thread, but the day is still young…] who keep questioning the guy’s motives or sincerity or concern for other writers kindly just shut the fuck up now? Thanks.)

Craig: Gotta disagree with you on this one. There’s a reason negotiators don’t start off with their bottom line, whether it’s buying a house or working out a union contract. Both sides have to get worn down and drawn in to a search for common ground. If the AMPTP were bargaining with you, Craig, then the negotiations would have proceeded far differently to this point. But look what happened when they pulled the residuals proposal off the table two weeks ago: many writers, and apparently the negotiating team, took it as a sign that their strategy was working! They congratulated themselves and became emboldened and even more intransigent in their combative approach. Removing the separated rights proposal — which, I agree, we shouldn’t have to live with — would just reinforce the intransigence. Your post two weeks ago was the right one: it’s now up to the Guild to make a gesture that shows it wants a deal. I thought that taking reality jurisdiction off the table, as reported in Variety, would be the move, but that’s not so clear now. Anyhow, if objectivity is possible here, the next move is still up to the Guild. One final thing. You talk about “hurting Patric” vs. “hurting the working writers,” and say management needs to separate the two. But the fact is, the Guild has made Patric and David our bargaining representatives. They may be amateurs at this game, but they’re the ones out on the field, and I don’t see how you can expect the AMPTP to pretend otherwise.

Everyone knows the final deal will look exactly like what you’ve outlined.

Once the punitive proposals are off the table the only things that the WGA membership actually care about are DVDs and downloads.

I think you are exactly right that the AMPTP will not cave on DVDs. Can anyone actually imagine walking out of the negotiations with an increase? Give me a break. That ship sailed when the rate was first negotiated. You don’t get do-overs,.

So, yeah, let’s fucking cut to the chase. Status quo but an equitable deal on downloads. As I say, everybody knows that’s how it’s going to shake out in the end.

If Verrone and Young play this hand much longer they are going to end up with a bunch of fi-core members IMHO.

Whoever said the movie industry is fading… are you serious? What possible drug could you have been taking to come up with that nonsensical, ridiculous notion?

If you’re seriously worried about Halo 4 through Halo Infinity (and videogames in general) replacing film, I think you need to stop lookinig over your shoulder all the time and quit checking your phone for bugs. Jesus Christ.

Craig —

I have to say that usually I agree with you, but this time… I’m not so sure.

I think that taking the resiudual roll back off the table was an empty gesture. No one took it seriously. It was a negotiation tactic… and taking it away was one, too. We don’t owe the producers a grand gesture in response.

Also — I’m not certain that the internet is the ONLY real issue, as you suggest. What about getting more networks and production companies to become guild affiliates? And I’m not talking covering reality shows. I’m talking about shows on MTV, Discovery et al that use writers to write … and pay them a paltry sum and don’t provide them health care and pension contributions? What about creating a mechanism to better enforce the rules we already have in place and an ability to exact punative damages when those previoulsy agreed upon arangements aren’t upheld?

Also, I’m not so sure Patrick is nuts for playing hardball. We’re never going to get anything from the producers unless they think we’re serious about going on strike. Plus, the producers are never going to just give us anything… we’re going to have to take it… we’re going to have to claw for every nickel…. and the way to make that happen is to be resiliant and defiant. And then, when necessary, practical.

And let’s not forget that someone wrote Halo.

Nice post Craig. You’re doing a great job. By the way, could you eat less asparagus?

Question:

When was the DVD rate first negotiated and agreed upon? It’s at 4c now and the WGA wants 8c — and manufacturing costs have gone down. Why not a rate increase based at the very least on inflation/cost of living?

Is it really so unfair or unreasonable what the writers are asking for?

Would the WGA be willing to make a compromise? Would the AMPTP be willing to budge even a cent?

I don’t disagree with those saying it’s a done deal so let’s move on. I just don’t get why they can’t meet somewhere in the middle and move on.

No, it’s not unfair or unreasonable to ask for increased Home Video residuals; however, we’ve asked for them in many negotiations over the past nearly 30 years and come up short. There’s little reason to believe that we will do better now, especially since we have another rate that needs to be negotiated as high as possible.

The thing about negotiations is that we don’t get everything we want, and we actually have to give up some things that are perfectly fair to get a deal we can live with.

Everything is connected. The AMPTP might well be willing to increase the DVD rate, but it’s likely to come at the expense of something else (most likely the Internet rate).

So the question becomes, “Are we willing to take a lower Internet rate than we might otherwise be able to get in order to get a higher DVD rate?”

Also: “Why not a rate increase based at the very least on inflation/cost of living?”

Since it’s a percentage (well, a percentage of a percentage) rather than a flat 4-cents, inflation is already built in (though the decreases in the costs associated with manufacture are not. The AMPTP would claim that their other costs have increased, so they still need the rate to remain the same to offset other costs, even though the specific manufacturing costs have gone down).

Hi Doug,

I think Anonymous P (#18) hit the nail on the head with regard to your question. It’s not as simple as “the ship has sailed” and they’re too stubborn to bend, the companies have already forecast these profits. It’s already built into the stock price. The companies are accountable to their investors like any other public corporation and DVD is a reliable stream of revenue in an unreliable industry.

From what I read in Nikki Finke’s LA Weekly article, it sounds like the AMPTP is going to come back with a proposal to lock in a residual rate on new media, but defer payment for X years in order to grow the market. (Maybe I’m wrong, but that’s how I read it.) Obviously a rate would still have to be negotiated, but this sounds completely reasonable to me. Writers are entitled to residuals for reuse and the companies should be given the opportunity to grow a new market with as little overhead as possible. (In the long run, it’s to our benefit.) As long as compensation is retroactive, I think this would be a perfect win-win scenario.

SML- LOST did not tank. It was a top 10 show in the key 18-49 demographic. Once it moved to 10 pm it was the #1 10 pm show on any network in the key demographic. It was also voted the second best show of the season by the critics after the Sopranos. It was never redundant and boring. The first 6 episodes were kinda weak but it really picked up in the final 16 episodes.

Sorry to go offtopic.

Never posted on this site before. Read it regularly. Can’t believe my livelyhood is in the hands of those whose hands it is in. I simply cannot hear “respect” “get what we deserve” “sick of them sticking it to us” any more time. Stop being pussies. If you want respect go talk to your mommy and daddy. This is life. This is business. Shut up and be thankful we get paid what we do for playing make-believe all day. Who cares if the big companies get rich? Hedge your bets then, buy stock in them. Just shut up already.

Craig, you’re dead-on. Maybe you’re the white-knight.

I believe Craig may be the first black-knight.

You’re on the money, Craig. The shit we’ gotta get, we’ GOT to get. So they might as well get to it.

Craig, Right on.

Here’s the downfall of DVDs. High Def. With the format war going on, no one is committing to one product or the other. However, High Def channels are broadcasting High Def movies now. I’ve stopped buying DVDs. I’ll record a HD movie on my DVR and watch at my leisure. On Demand HD movies are also killing the market.

Look at the music industry. People held onto cassettes when CDs came around. I’m sure some people still have CDs now, but most have MP3s on their ipod.

Good point, Brian. I haven’t bought a CD in years, yet I’ve purchased more music (through legal downloads) in the past few years than I have since college. I’ve thrown away all my cassettes and have dumped all of my CDs onto my computers so I can get rid of the clutter. As hard drive space continues to expand, I expect to do the same with my DVDs.

Just to keep it interesting: Craig doesn’t speak for everyone in the Guild. Though this forum gives him a loud voice. And that’s fine ‘cause he built this baby up himself (with Ted) and deserves to reap the rewards. Hell, it may be his real calling.

BUT, speaking as another WGAw writer, I don’t know if I’d want Craig negotiating for me. I don’t know if his tactics would work any better. As I said, in another post, I found John Bowman to be smart, deligent, inscrutable (good for a negotiator,) not emotional, and the man I’d want on the frontlines of this thing. He wouldn’t do anything foolish.

I also don’t have the same impression Craig has of Patric. But I didn’t get to talk to Patric very much. Craig knows him better.

Sometimes, I think Craig would be too much like me when negoatiating. Too emotional and not flexible enough. Anyway, there you have it. A dissenting point of view and, maybe, a post that gets bashed by the man himself. Don’t bash too hard. I account for a lot of your hits during the day.

Sometimes, I think Craig would be too much like me when negoatiating. Too emotional and not flexible enough.

I thought the argument against Craig was that he too flexible and not Bravehearty enough.

This is a first.

By the way I’m not in the camp that DVD’s will be a thing of the past in the near future. My own made up statistics tell me that people tend to keep their work space separate from their entertainment area. So even if their computer is hooked to their main television set, it’s not likely that you’re gonna kick everyone off the television so you can do some writing.

There’s a difference between the “Watch Instantly” section of Netflix and the pure joy of owning a DVD like, Not Just The Best Of The Larry Sanders Show (which is probably the best DVD to come out in over a decade).

There’s a big difference between the audio experience which is all about making things smaller and more compact and the visual experience which is all about making things bigger and more grand.

Bigger in sense of the screen. But are you seriously suggesting that you wouldn’t rather scroll through options on a menu then pull out a hard copy? A person can own without having to deal with shelving. Plus, the better picture right now is On Demand unless you’re willing to shell out mucho dineros on one or both HD formats.

Bigger in sense of the screen. But are you seriously suggesting that you wouldn’t rather scroll through options on a menu then pull out a hard copy?

Yes, that’s what I’m suggesting. Maybe my point of view is rather narrow because I’m a cinephile but when I buy a DVD, the special features are a huge part of that purchase. I also kind of like the artwork that goes into a DVD. Hell, they might upload entire books onto a computer one day but I happen to like my shelves of books (and comic books).

There are definitely still billions of dollars that will be earned by selling DVDs over the next several years, so if there was a way to get an increased residual rate on DVDs, it would be financially worth it. It’s not like getting a deal on DIVX discs in 2001 or anything like that.

The problem to me remains what we’d probably have to give up to get an increased DVD rate at a time when it will likely take just about everything we have just to get an Internet rate.

If we want to go after the DVDs, then we probably need to go with the AMPTP-proposed study and fight over the rate three years from now.

I just don’t see any possible way that we can get both in this negotiation.

But maybe that’s just me.

Kevin,

You sound like a record collector in 1991. Which isn’t an insult at all. It just means you are part of a small minority.

Really. You think DVDs in 2007 are like vinyl records were in 1991?

Vinyl records started to disappear around about 1983. Are we really already eight years past the DVD? Are DVD buyers/watchers really a small minority when compared to Internet-based digital solutions.

I’m posting anonymously, despite the fact that those who run this site can probably see the IP I share with a bunch of people where I work, because I don’t want to prompt another phone call like this one:

Last night, I got a call from my strike captain. He introduced himself and offered to give me an update on the negotiations that took place yesterday, but I told him I’d read there weren’t any scheduled until today. He fumbled a bit, then told me he’d have to get back to me on that.

Then, he explained that he’s been having trouble reaching other members in my particular zip code and asked whether I knew any of them personally, actually rattling off a few last names and streets without revealing specific addresses. This pissed me off and I told him so.

His abrupt last words were: “You’ll hear from me again if there’s a strike.”

Does this sound dubious to anybody or am I overreacting?

With all the strife this state is facing, I hope this strike can be averted. The timing would be as bad as having a movie in release called “Things We Lost In A Fire” playing in Malibu right now.

Kevin -

Doesn’t emphasizing the preference for dvds over downloads play into the hands of the amptp’s attempts to downplay the importance of new media?

Studio shill!

Ryan,

No, but they will be.

Anon P. #18 breaks it down nicely.

As someone talked about on a previous thread, the studios are starting to make some films only available as downloads. That could change the balance between DVDs and internet if they keep doing that.

I know they will be, which is why it’s important to lock in a good Internet rate now. I just disagree with the idea that DVDs are currently eight years over. That 1999 was the year DVDs started disappearing and are all but completely gone now.

And Post #18 also contradicts the idea that a person who buys a DVD in 2007 is a small minority and like a person who bought vinyl albums in 1991.

I wouldn’t give up the future to get a better DVD rate today, but I also think it silly to pretend that only a small minority buys DVDs today.

“As someone talked about on a previous thread, the studios are starting to make some films only available as downloads. That could change the balance between DVDs and internet if they keep doing that.”

And they will keep doing it, but it will take time for that to become the dominant form of home video distribution.

It certainly didn’t happen eight years ago.

Mark me as another one agreeing with Anonymous P at #18 — use a small sacrifice on a medium with an expiration date to leverage a larger gain on a medium that will likely be around indefinitely.

It may not even become the dominant form, but a viable alternative for lesser product that’s not worth duplication and marketing costs, as someone else brought up.

The producers will claim that the internet has yet to reap profits for them, but it already has. Some older TV shows from two major studios have been available for free on various sites that generate advertising revenue for them.

The internet might eventually become the new syndication. And we all know how valuable syndication was and is.

Steve,

Not indefinitely. Jim Uhls’ blog has some ideas on tub-less bath tubs and eye lid projection you might want to check out.

Craig-

Hey bud. Long time. Your comments on how to resolve the strike seem a lot like….well….Patrick Verrone. I’m not sure why you’re so hard on this guy. I think he’s doing a great job and there are a lot of writers— although very few on this blog— who think he’s handling it all very well.

“Really. You think DVDs in 2007 are like vinyl records were in 1991?”

Granted, it’s not a literal comparison. But the idea that liner notes, artwork and extras are going to save the DVD distribution medium is ludicrous. And that is what vinyl collectors were saying back in the day.

And right now you can download almost any popular movie you want from the internet. It will be illegal to do so. But a whole lot of people around the world see movies for the first time by downloading it off the internet.

Internet movie downloads are already here. It’s just that the studios haven’t figured out a way to deal with the piracy yet.

Jonas,

Agreed. I think Craig is too hard on Patric et al. I expressed that opinion a few posts above just to let the non-WGAw writers who read this blog know that some of the Guild writers think that things are going okay or, at a minimum, are willing to see how it plays it out.

Thanks for stepping up and posting and I commend you for not being anonymous. Maybe, I’ll change my tune, though Craig probably knows who I am already, since he seems to have figured out who some of the other Guild anonymous posters are.

“The producers will claim that the internet has yet to reap profits for them”

And one of the reasons we’re stuck with the home video rate we have is because we fell for that argument 30 years ago.

The point is, we’re not going to get both an acceptable Internet rate and an increase in the DVD rate. If we absolutely must have an increase in the DVD rate, it’s going to be a very long and drawn out battle. So, if we really are going for that (and we’ve not backed off it yet, so I have to assume there’s a chance that’s something the NegCom and Leadership are going to continue to push for), it would be in our best interests to then put off the Internet battle for three years because there’s no way we’re going to get both.

My point about it being silly to claim that DVD buyers are a small minority isn’t to say we should fight for a higher rate but just to say that it’s silly to claim the DVDs are long past done as was done in this very thread (post #41).

Hey Jonas, good to hear from you!

I think the big difference between me and Patric is that I’m willing to say right now…let’s take reality off the table, let’s take animation off the table, let’s take DVD’s off the table…let’s take everything off the table except internet.

And if they don’t give us a good deal on internet, then let’s strike, because it’s worth the battle.

Unfortunately, Patric can’t seem to let go of the bluff cards, so I’m reduced to asking the AMPTP to let go of theirs.

Which they probably won’t.

Meaning a strike before even a minute of actual, substantive negotiations about internet downloads ever occurs.

“And right now you can download almost any popular movie you want from the internet.”

A person can buy almost any song or record legally on the Internet, but those sales are still currently dwarfed by CD sales (Legal online music sales made up 10% of the market last year). And while that number will likely to continue to grow over time, I think it would be silly to claim that a person who buys CDs today is part of a small minority and is like a person who still worked hard to seek out vinyl nearly a decade after it was largely removed from stores, etc.

And honestly, I don’t remember anybody claiming anything was going to save vinyl in 1991, a time when it was already almost impossible to find vinyl to buy.

Ryan:

But then you’re fighting in the past. You can insure that this very scenario doesn’t happen on downloads for the future, now. The mistake that happened 30 years ago was in not thinking ahead.

Think of it this way, three years ago would you have thought we would be doing the things with our phones that we are currently doing with our phones. Technology is moving fast. The guild can keep playing catch up or it can get ahead of the curve.

I agree with #55, Ryan. SML got into a debate with another poster about profitability being irrelevant, but that’s the reason the producers will opt to have a longterm study while they reap unknown rewards, conversely while paying us a pittance on an existing formula that doesn’t reflect the money being generated.

The younger demographic literally doesn’t watch actual broadcasts anymore, seeing episodes for the first time on DVRs or the internet. Viewing habits are changing as we speak which means advertising is adapting to take advantage. Just look at how many commercials you are forced to watch if you ever gander at video streams over at www.tmz.com Those buying ads are getting full value.

Unlike a DVR where you can skip commercials, the internet holds your eyeballs captive like a droog in “Clockwork Orange”.

It’s a bonanza.

Craig-

I hear you, I just think either by luck or intention, the Verrone-led WGA did catch the AMPTP flat-footed by bringing a strike to the fore when EVERYONE was sure it wouldn’t go until June—

So on that front he’s either lucky or good. And if he’s good— then like any good bluffer, he’s gonna hold his bluff cards until the last possible instant. So maybe he’s a half-cocked cowboy, maybe he’s a genius….all I’m arguing for is give the guy the benefit of the doubt because so far so good.

Jonas

BTW— had a blast at Reunions this year. 15th! can you believe it….

Brian,

I think you’re confusing technology with commerce.

Eventually, DVD’s replaced VHS not only because it was better technology but because it was much cheaper to produce. It was great for the consumer and studio alike.

DVD’s are different. Right now, a new DVD has an average price point of $19.99. Television DVD’s can go as high as $79.99.

Downloading a movie or Movies on Demand are about $4.99.

The market for DVD’s is amazing for studios. There’s no way in the world that they will cut their profit margin for a film (in most cases, movies are only profitable on DVD), in order to make it easier for a consumer to get a film. Plus, do you really think people will pay $19.99 to download a film? And what about when you go on vacation? Do you take your whole computer with you?

The reason why DVD’s will never be obsolete is the same reason electric cars are pretty much extinct. It’s all about money and profit.

Jonas:

Agreed. He caught them flat-footed.

But what’s the upside to that?

If we do go on strike, I’d argue that he hoisted us all by his own petard.

So like you said, it’s a wait-and-see on that one.

Meanwhile, he blew millions of dollars in dues money on a reality campaign that was doomed from the start, mostly because it was an ill-conceived Rube Goldberg strategy.

So I blame him for that.

I also blame him for a certain cultural sea change in the Guild that has seen a large amount of turnover in staff, as well as the loss of some of our best and brightest, the most serious of which was Grace Reiner…who was and still is the foremost expert on the MBA (who doesn’t work for the AMPTP).

Patric pretty much isolated her and pushed her out.

I blame him for that one as well.

Since I served on the Board with Patric for two years, I’ve come to respect his intelligence but rue his inability to get around his own religious thinking about union issues…particulary when his failures come with real costs for us all.

PS: Sorry I missed the 15th reunion. I was prepping. I guess I’ll have to go back in…Jesus…2012??? That’s like a science fiction date. Christ, we’re old.

PPS: Drop me a line, lemme know what you and your brother are doing these days.

Ryan and Greg,

Profitability is relevant just not to the discussion of our percentage/take of first dollar revenues generated from our content (thanks Ted and Anon P.).

Ryan,

DVD was relevant… 20+ years ago, but we caved. The DVD talk is acid to the AMPTP just like the rollbacks is acid to us. They will not touch it even if we took New Media off the table.

The hold off and study scenario for internet is the exact same scenario that put us in such a pickle with DVD in the first place.

Kevin,

No, you’ll take your iPod with you. Or its equivalent.

Okay, not you. But one will take one’s iPod, etc.

The music industry didn’t start shifting from CDs to downloads because it was a great deal for them (it wasn’t); they did it because a significant part of their market wanted to consume their music in that form, and the companies could either sell it to them online or watch them steal it online.

The only thing currently preventing the same thing happening with movies and TV is the lack of a convenient technological “bridge” between the computer you store your movies on and the big-screen TV you want to watch them on. The moment it’s possible—without having to get up from your comfy TV-watchin’ chair and go back over to the computer—to see all the movies you own and select one (or better yet, see all the movies Amazon or somebody has for sale and buy one), all with ass never breaking contact with seat cushion, the world is going to fall out of love with shiny discs in a hurry.

(And given how many techy genius types know that there’s a fortune awaiting the first company to get that “bridge” thingy invented, one of them will inevitably figure it out….)

The other part of the equation is just demographic, I think. I know people of voting age, if not yet drinking age, who have never purchased a CD, and never will. If they get one as a gift, they bring it directly to a computer, pull the music off immediately into a format that they actually care to interact with, and never think about the disc again. They have no relationship with it; they have no nostalgic attachment to it; they don’t care that it comes with a cool little booklet and a picture on the back. The whole package is as cumbersome, to their minds, as a car you have to stand in front of and crank in order to start it.

And the moment it becomes as convenient to schlepp your movies and TV shows around to the places where you want to watch them as it currently is to schlepp your songs around to the places where you want to listen to them, people will begin to feel exactly the same way about DVDs. I agree that it’ll be a long, slow, quite profitable death, but it’ll start to happen first among the group of people who, statistically speaking, have the most shit yet to buy over the remainder of their lifetimes (let alone ours).

Children are our future, ya know? All else being equal, we ought to be fighting for a piece of the thing that they’ll be spending their money on.

Anon P.,

You’re wicked cool. I agree with you.

Why aren’t Anon P. and Craig on the NegCom? How do you get on the NegCom? Is it a democratic process or are you appointed?

Who is on the NegCom besides Patric Verrone and Terry George?

Inquisitive minds want to know.

Anon P,

But you can agree that there’s a very big difference between CD’s and DVD’s. I mean, with music you’re talking about sound and sound quality. No one I know wants to watch movies or television on an IPod as their 1st choice of entertainment.

And the music industry hasn’t shifted from CD’s to downloads. It’s made downloads a very convenient supplemental choice. Which is what’s going on with DVD’s and On Demand movies right now.

My question to you is: Would you pay $19.99 to download a movie or watch it On Demand? Do you really think studios (because it’s up to them, not technology) to give up all that extra money? And do you think it benefits writers or directors to completely eliminate DVDs?

Yes, CDs are dead. I haven’t been to a record store in over a year. I hear a song I like, I look it up and download it.

Secondly, you are missing the point on On Demand. High Def. I have to believe you haven’t watched one yet.

And On Demand isn’t just pay per view. You can watch HD movies for free over satellite and cable. It’s part of the monthly fee for the service.

As far as portability goes, you can download a recorded program from your DVR to a flash drive, plug it in to the DVR wherever you are and watch on your big screen television.

Quick update: Variety’s update and also the official statement on today’s delivered proposal from the AMPTP’s website

Brian,

I have the HD channels with my Optimum Online. Which means that I can watch really shitty martial art movies in the very best of quality!! (just kidding…but seriously, some of those movies Chinese Connection II???!!)

But my point is, I think people believe that technology runs industry. It doesn’t. If it did, no one would be using gasoline for their cars. I don’t see how eliminating DVD’s would put more money in the pockets of studios. Because let’s face it, if it doesn’t make them even more money, there’s no way in the world they’d do it.

And my other question is still out there: Do you think eliminating DVD’s is good for writers and directors?

It’s becoming harder to find stores to buy CDs in, as I refuse to shop at Walmart and my nearby Tower closed. I either download music or order it from Amazon. I buy DVDs online as well. If Internet downloads offer supplemental content and I can burn them to disc, I might eschew purchasing discs.

Does Nikki Finke’s latest story, saying today’s talks were tense and that a strike seems inevitable, sound kosher to anybody?

Wellll, if you’re gonna watch bad movies…

And, of course, I do think technology runs THIS industry. So, that may be where we disagree most. I don’t know what the pricing on downloads will be. No one does. But the manfacturing of disk, box, liner notes and the shipping costs all go out the window. Whatever the price will be, a profit for studios will be had.

As to you final question, I don’t think it matters. It’s out of the hands of writers and directors.

Here are the two things that are going to determine the future of discs. 1. format war on HD ends with one winner. 2. someone doesn’t come up with a way to make downloads easier.

Brian,

And, of course, I do think technology runs THIS industry.

That’s definitely where we disagree most.

Just look at your specific industry as an agent/manager. Even with the advent of Breakdown Express, a lot of casting directors still want a cumbersome package of 8x10’s (by the way, I used to work with Todd a thousand years ago when I was a manager). Even though there’s a better way to do things on your end, it’s still rather antiquated.

DVD’s aren’t going anywhere. And what makes you think downloads are difficult? And who’s this someone?

I meant transferring from computer to television. Don’t know who the someone is.

I can count on one hand the casting people that don’t take electronic submissions. Most everything I do is electronic these days.

I can count on one hand the casting people that don’t take electronic submissions. Most everything I do is electronic these days.

Unfortunately there a ton of managers that don’t even know how to scan a picture into their computer. Plus, just look at the websites of management companies. They look like a page from Jukt Micronics (does anyone get the Shattered Glass reference…?)

You trying to get me in trouble with managers?

Heh, heh.

How is old Todd, by the way?

How do you get on the NegCom? Is it a democratic process or are you appointed?

Members of the NC are selected by the WGAw Board of Directors and the WGAe Council.

Nikki Fink’s new update:

Sighed my WGA source, “Without a real shift in the next six days, a strike appears inevitable.”

AYAAW

From Ray Richmond:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/features/columns/pulse/e3ia9a39f26ada8cf16c9939fe12749952e

It’s so nice when the so-called journalists can’t even get the story right. Has there been an announcement in either trade that was even remotely accurate?

The Hollywood Reporter story made Nikki Finke reporting look good.

Richmond’s piece was awful, and I know the guy. (I love how he threw in the ageism comment to boot.) As Yoko Ono said: “Writers are the __ of the world.”

Just spoke to someone who works with the AMPTP who said the mood is poisonous in the negotiating room and we’re heading for disaster. While we’re always going to be hearing that, hearing Craig’s description of a “religious” fervor from Varrone makes me feel like he’s using Spartacus’ playbook.

AMPTP,

In case you are, in fact, reading this, I’m a guild writer, just like Craig, no better and no worse. And I want you to know that Craig Mazin does not speak for me.

Patric Verrone (and the other members of the negotiating team across from whom you’ve been sitting these past few weeks) speaks for me. That’s as I wanted it. That’s why I voted for Patric Verrone (and his slate) in 2005, along with 68% of my fellow writers who voted, soundly and handily defeating Craig’s blogging partner, Ted Elliot.

Despite the fact that Craig, above, refers to the WGA as “my union,” it is, in fact, “our union,” and it belongs to the entire membership… the vast majority of which voted (not once, but twice) for the officers and board members you’re negotiating with today.

For whatever it’s worth,

Patrick Meighan “Family Guy” writer

I think they’re reading it.

Patrick, I don’t know why, but I was very moved by your post.

“Ryan:

But then you’re fighting in the past. You can insure that this very scenario doesn’t happen on downloads for the future, now. The mistake that happened 30 years ago was in not thinking ahead.

Think of it this way, three years ago would you have thought we would be doing the things with our phones that we are currently doing with our phones. Technology is moving fast. The guild can keep playing catch up or it can get ahead of the curve.”

I agree with this totally. I think DVD residuals are a dead issue, but people (including, at this point, Guild leadership, though they have to have a bunch of issues, some of which will go away as negotiations continue) continue to bring it up as if it’s something that needs to be addressed in these negotiations, and I say that because we have a limited amount of fight, we can either choose to fight for the future (Internet) or fight for the past (DVDs). We can’t do both.

There’s still a lot of money in DVDs and there probably will still be three or four years from now when this next deal expires. And if it was at all possible to get a better rate without sacrificing our Internet rate, I’d be all for it. It’s just not something that’s possible.

Nice post Patrick. You too, Jonas.

Another WGAw writer…

Anon BIO,

Poisonous. That’s disheartening. Maybe the AMPTP are insincere in their multiple attempts at communication, but they’re trying.

Verrone’s crazy-man-look-at-me-I-have-gun-look-at-me-I’m-putting-the-gun-to-our-collective-heads-look-at-me-I’m-gonna-pull-the-trigger act, admittedly, has worked. Well actually.

He’s got people running scared shitless. But he’s making me wonder if it is just an ACT.

I read over the new AMPTP proposal and I have no fucking clue what it means. But what I see is this; “We’ll take a, b, c, d, e, f, g off the table if you take 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 off.”

Of course, what those elements are is vague to me and are potentially meaningless, but it does prove malleability on the AMPTP’s part.

So if they’re willing to move, why don’t we, the WGA, push and see how far they’ll go?

It seems to me we might be able to avoid a strike. So why not, in the least, seem to try? Why, oh, why?

Drive by,

That is also disheartening. Thank you.

Patrick,

So if Verrone speaks for you and Craig does not, why are you speaking now? Paradox? Yes.

AMPTP,

if you are reading this: stick it up your ass! Stick it up your ASS!!

“Patrick, So if Verrone speaks for you and Craig does not, why are you speaking now? Paradox? Yes.”

Touche, SML. Well played.

Patrick Meighan

SML, what disturbed me most by what this person who works for the AMPTP said is how personal things seem to be in that room.

Having not sat in on any union negotiating sessions, I assumed perhaps they always feel that way, but not according to this individual who said she (doesn’t reveal anything) has never seen anything like this before. (And, for what it’s worth, she claims it’s our side that’s refusing to move. This person is admittedly biased.)

I think Craig’s declaration about being adults is correct. Negotiations have to take place and truly haven’t yet, if all this is accurate.

If the AMPTP thinks they can keep us at the status quo, they’re dead wrong. I just hope this doesn’t turn into the creative industry’s version of Iraq without a decent exit strategy.

From John Bowman’s statement today, now up at wga.org:

Our employers are growing and dominate the global entertainment industry. Yet their opening offer would have rolled back our compensation by 50%. Now they decrease the rollbacks to 45% and proclaim that they are truly bargaining

Okay, I’ve been impresed by Bowman when I’ve heard him speak, but does anyone else find this statement disingenuous? It’s not as if the AMPTP proposal would literally halve all, or even many, or any, writers’ total earnings.

I assume Bowman’s referencing the raising of the low bargain threshold, which I agree is one of the more pernicious stealth points in the AMPTP proposal. But Bowman’s making it sound like the AMPTP proposal would cut all our quotes in half, which obviously it isn’t.

I guess this is a minor point, but it drives me nuts when my side tries to spin in a clumsy and non-honest way.

Patrick,

Paradox is my middle to last and first name.

Mike,

Damn it. I say we impeach. You with me? Meet you at Swingers near Fairfax. You bring the peaches…

For real: I feel queasy and I agree with you.

Craig,

Are you also hearing this rumor that studio heads are currently battling over whether to fire Nick Counter because of the way he left things without enough time to reach a deal even with supposedly “not unproductive” back channels? Supposed concern is that he has fumbled the p.r. battle so far. I keep waiting for Finke or McNary to weigh in on this but so far nothing.

“And, for what it’s worth, she claims it’s our side that’s refusing to move.”

I’ve not yet seen us move on anything yet, so I think that would be an accurate assessment.

Now, the question is whether it’s in our best interests to move.

That, I can’t answer.

“If the AMPTP thinks they can keep us at the status quo, they’re dead wrong.”

I’d much rather have the status quo than this latest offer.

Dear Anonymous #43,

Maybe your strike captain wants to sound like a know-it-all in order to make himself seem like more of an authority to you. And maybe he was fishing for phone numbers from you for those other writers?

There is a chance that some strike captains took that “meet people” thing too seriously.

Susan

Craig please do the right thing and give SML a job or be his mentor or direct one of his movies because otherwise he will have done some Grade A ass-licking for nothing.

Craig’s attempts to portray Patric V as a strike-happy loose cannon are absurd and the nearly 70% of writers who voted for PV and the 90% who voted to authorize a strike agree. Hell, that’s 160% right there!

Craig seems resentful of PV and is operating under the delusion that the board is the same disorganized mess that he and Ted E served on. It’s not. Just ask Craig’s friend, John McLean, who the AMPTP loved because he was notorious for caving to Nick Counter.

McLean’s gone and Counter’s is facing a united, focused effort by the WGA. His usual posturing is getting him nowhere. He came to the table with two non-starters, hoping the WGA would back off of the real issues like they usually do. He was totally unprepared when they didn’t. Now, the producers are pissed because they know he’s mismanaged things. His tirade today about the chairs only shows how impotent he’s become.

MMB #98,

I was aiming my licking towards Nick Counter actually. Either way, it all tastes the same to me.

(Note: You’re better off attacking my compulsive need to respond to anonymous posters. That cuts deeper.)

Remove all the AMPTP rollbacks, give us 50 percent of every single thing that we asked for, and that would NOT have meant a lot of money to the AMPTP, even when they give it to DGA and SAG too. Certainly would have cost them MUCH less than the strike will.

Do not think that the honchos behind Mr. Counter don’t know this. Mr. Counter himself is now a bargaining chip, to be tossed aside by the honchos when we strike. Honchos have gone this far with Mr. Counter so they’re not going to abandon him in October. November is a different story. His firing will be a cost-free concession by the honchos that will make the WGA feel victorious at no added expesnse to the studios. That is why they are still keeping him around — he is worth more in November than now.

From Nikki Finke’s column:

“For awhile there was an impasse, and then the exec from Paramount entered the fray and started yelling at guild members. Finally, several negotiating committee members went out and got chairs for the extra AMPTP’ers. “Not a great start,” one source commented to me. Then it continued with Counter’s vitriolic rant regarding the WGA’s conduct during the process. “He seems frustrated by this guild leadership that’s not caving at the sight of him,” an WGA insider told me. “Counter is being a little bitch.”

This is the first time during negotiations I’ve heard Counter called a “bitch,” especially a little one.

I’d love to know who the Paramount executive is and have my guess. What was he yelling? “We don’t need scripts at Paramount! Look at ‘Transformers’ a-holes! Show me a three act structure! ‘An Inconvenient Truth 2’ is in the works right now!”

I guess something should be said for getting the other side this rattled, but it feels like the collective WGA are being treated as a slave revolt.

It’s time for the studio chiefs to decide: Machismo or Financial Responsiblity. It’s obvious now they can’t have both.

I think they will set their testosterone aside and choose responsibly. And if they don’t, Wall Street will.

Were we really such big pussies for two decades that Nick Counter thinks a winning strategy is to simply bring more people than he said he would and pick a fight over chairs?

VIVA LA VERRONE!!!

Oh come on, Craig. People no more want to hear your plan to prevent a strike than John Kerry’s plan to win in Iraq.

Were we really such big pussies for two decades that Nick Counter thinks a winning strategy is to simply bring more people than he said he would and pick a fight over chairs?

David Young has played chair games himself in the past. When the Board met with the Reality Organizing Steering Committee, David had them sit at the Board table so as to isolate Board members from each other (as well as to displace Board members from places they were accustom to sitting at). It’s a pretty standard type of intimidation tactic: control the room, make the other side feel like interlopers. That’s why it took eight months to agree on the shape of the table in the Vietnam War Peace Talks.

So, here, according to Finke, the AMPTP shows up with more people then the Guild expected, and David Young refused to bring in more chairs then Counter and Young got into a “yes, you did / no, you didn’t / I’ve got witnesses” debate that had the subtle dynamics of a kindegarten recess and then another of the producers yelled and then, finally, someone went and got more chairs.

Why not just get more chairs when it became apparent that there weren’t enough chairs?

See you all on the picket lines. I’ll be wearing the look of disgust.

• Ted

I am late to the party, but I - too - say “A-men” to Monsieur Mazin. It’s fun to watch teen girls on Melrose drop $47.50 on Che t-shirts. It’s another thing to watch your leadership put them on, knowing they’re mentally hoping their faces are immortalized in a “Written By” article thirty years from now praising their “brilliance” as a substitute for the Oscar speech they’ve been practicing since they were 12.

Ted — re: #106,

Chances are, the AMPTP brought more people than they said they would as a purposeful intimidation tactic. As you wrote yourself, techniques like that are a staple of labor-management battles.

If management tries to intimidate our negotiators, is the correct response to accommodate them, or to push back and set a precedent that we’re not going to back down?

We’ve actually moved into David Young’s area of professional expertise (finally!). At this point, I’d be quicker to criticize the AMPTP’s maneuver rather than Young’s response to it.

Craig, Ted, thanks again for running this site.

I too have heard the rumors about Nick Counter, that the studios think he’s botched this bigtime and he’s gone — it’s just a matter of when.

The thing about Counter is that he has always acted this way. In 2003, he was saying all the same things. Difference is, now the negotiating committee is simply ignoring him until they receive a proposal they think is serious and little Nicky can’t handle it. He’s doing far more harm than good right now — for his own side.

Can someone explain what the new AMPTP proposal says about new media residuals? I haven’t seen a concise explanation in the trades and when I try to read the actual proposal I hear my mother’s voice in my head telling me to go to law school and it’s just too painful to continue.

Mike S,

It basically says “Suck it” on New Media residuals.

I don’t know how everything is going to end up, nor do I know the AMPTP strategy, but from the outside, it does appear that the AMPTP has, at the very least, negotiated somewhat strangely.

The proposals they keep putting on the table are doing nothing but angering and uniting writers. Even many people who don’t necessarily care for the tactics the Guild has used over the past several years are still largely willing to line-up and strike against the proposals that have been put forth.

I mean, we can argue over what’s an acceptable Internet rate, but I don’t think there are many WGA members who think “Zero” is the appropriate amount. And all the rollback provisions (in the previous offer and in the current one) are strike-worthy for a lot of members, as well.

If there was something offered, even a relatively low-ball offer, from the AMPTP on the issues, there would be some internal pressure from members to take the deal, increasing as each deal got better.

Instead, the AMPTP is putting forward offers that set the bar so low that even people who are generally against Mr. Verrone and Mr. Young are instead being forced to line-up behind them. Virtually nobody from inside the Guild is going to pressure leadership to take this deal.

All that would probably be okay if there were still a month or so to go before the expiration, but with the strike vote in hand and less than a week before expiration, offering these deals virtually guarantees a strike.

Maybe the AMPTP members don’t care about a strike. They figure they’ll go on their timeline and it’ll be done when it gets done. Maybe they want a strike to clean house. Maybe they don’t want to negotiate with the WGA at all and are instead making offers they know we won’t accept just to bide time until they can go to the table with the DGA.

I don’t know the strategy, but it seems to be the opposite of what the AMPTP would want.

But hey, what do I know?

Listen guys, if you read the proposals, they’re still mostly rollbacks. So the AMPTP are the guys who still aren’t serious. Those are the facts.

Even though some of the rollback sare hard to understand and some deal with vanity (first class tickets vs coach,) some are clearly rollbacks that the WGAw isn’t going to go along with.

Just one of the many examples. Minimum payments for a low budget feature. Something Craig and Ted don’t have to worry about, but that many writers in the Guild are affected and those of you who hope to enter the Guild.

They want a low budget film to be considered 25 mil, instead of 5 mil. In the real world, here is how that works. You sell something and the the financier is too cheap to pay high budget scale, even though he knows the film is going to cost more than 5 mil, so he pays you the low budget scale for now, and will be on the hook for the rest should the movie ever move forward.

This tactic doesn’t work when you or your agent or manager can clearly say come on, no way is this a low budget movie ( big special effects, action, etc.)

But now, with this higher number, if we should accept, all those projects sold in a non-competitive situation (which is how most films are sold) will get low budget scale because it’s much easier to play the under 25 mil game, than the under 5 mil game.

There are other examples of clear rollbacks, but I leave up to someone else to do the math for you.

This is standard negotiating practice. Can’t really criticize David on this, Ted. I mean you can if you want, but David handled it “correctly” as far as the kind of criticism being le