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On The Verge...

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Hope you had a pleasant Thanksgiving.

I really really really hope that the Verrones and the Counters and the Youngs and the Chernins and the Bowmans and the Meyers had a pleasant Thanksgiving.

They’re all back in the room tomorrow.

And there are rumors.

Hollywood rumors occasionally come on like seizures, grabbing everyone’s attention and shaking them around. More frequently, they emerge like one of Kant’s synthetic a priori judgments—supposedly unquestionably true, and yet not by way of reason or analysis. People suddenly just know stuff, and they don’t know why, but they sure as hell believe it.

Gotta love this town.

There’s a rumor out there now that Monday’s meeting is almost pro forma. The rumor says that the basic deal structure has been agreed upon, the next few days are about hammering out the devillish details, but whatever that magic number is…it’s been found.

Tempting to believe.

So tempting…that I believe it.

But first, some baseball news.

I was reading about Johan Santana today (for those of you who don’t follow the sport, he’s pretty much the best pitcher in the game…and a lefty to boot). The Twins have him under a cheap contract for one more year.

If they keep him for that year, he becomes a free agent…and leaves them, because they can’t afford to pay him what he’s worth on the open market.

If they trade him now, they lose him for one year but stand to gain some tremendous players in return.

Easy choice. They have to trade him.

Here’s where the game theory kicks in. They can’t trade him for scrubs. They need great players. So it would seem they have all the leverage. On the other hand, the teams they’re dealing with know all too well that the Twins have to trade him, or they end up with nothing…and those teams would then still have a shot at Santana on the open market.

So the Twins need to be strong but reasonable, and the opposing teams need to be strong but reasonable.

Nice balance.

Right now, our situation makes the Santana trade look like child’s play, but still…we have some balance, and that’s what matters. Neither side can crush the other (despite infantile proclamations to the contrary from both the union and the companies). The companies know that their current offer is a non-starter in a general sense. By now, they’ve heard as much, I presume, from the DGA.

Either they dared us to strike to see if we had the balls (dumb, because their deal was so ridiculous, who would possibly agree to take it?), or they forced us to strike in order to….

…well, hell, Nick Counter, buy me a drink one day and explain that to me if it’s the case. It certainly seemed like the AMPTP forced a strike, but to what end?

Regardless, the balance in the equation may be forcing a compromise. We’re costing them money. We’re costing ourselves money. They have the DGA they can bargain with…but they still have to bargain with them.

If the rumors are correct, there’s enough impetus to get the AMPTP back to finding the magic number.

So let’s start defining “victory.”

To me, victory doesn’t have to include any DVD increase (and given that we already gave that one up before ungiving it up, don’t expect it folks…and yes, I’ve spoken with a number of writers who honestly believe that we’ll get one). It doesn’t have to include any jurisdictional gains, nor does it have to include anything at all regarding product integration.

Victory requires the following.

  1. Maintenance, at very least, of status quo for separated rights
  2. A better-than-DVD rate for electronic sell-through on the internet
  3. A reasonable formula for streaming reuse

Pretty muddy, I grant you. For instance, what if the companies promise a good residual rate, but insist on that rollback for separated stage dramatization rights? I’ll let other people chew on those. Similarly, what’s reasonable for #3? And how much better than is truly better than? .31% ain’t enough. 2.5% won’t happen either.

Perhaps, if the rumors are correct, those are the things left to discuss. They’re big things.

But if we’ve gotten past some of the major stumbling blocks and boiled it down to the serious stuff at hand…and more importantly, if the AMPTP is ready to acknowledge certain basic realities…then we might be back to work soon.

Before I go, there are two other matters to discuss.

First, attorney Jonathan Handel has written a fantastic primer on our residuals rates and the true numbers involved. Surprise, surprise…the whole “four more cents!” thing is reductive sloganeering with little bearing on the actual economic issues here…and yet…as Handel argues convincingly, we deserve more nonetheless.

I strongly recommend you read his essay. You can’t fit it on a picket sign, but it’s a whole lot more convincing than anything beginning with “Hey hey, ho ho!”

Secondly, I’ve received a number of emails all posing variants of the following question.

“I’m not a member of the WGA yet, and I’m wondering how the strike affects me. Can I sell material to or work for signatory companies? Is there any rule preventing me from doing that?”

Here’s my answer to all of you who’ve asked.

I’m not telling you.

I’m not telling you because I’m basically here to try and help writers and empower writers, and while I love truth and accuracy, I’m not obligated to write down how-to manuals for scabbing.

So here’s the answer I’ll give instead.

Regardless of the rules, regulations, laws, court decisions and anything else prevailing either for or against you, if you sell material to or make writing deals with signatory companies while the WGA is on strike, then you’re an asshole.

You’re an asshole because you’re undercutting, you’re an asshole because you’re exploiting opportunities made possible by people who are trying to better everyone’s circumstances, and you’re an asshole because…well…

…I’ll go back to a synthetic a priori judgment. You just are.

Good enough for Kant, good enough for me.

Aggh, one more thing (“Our three weapons are…!”).

The blog.

Totally redoing it. I’ve decided that MovableType 4, while better than 3, is still inferior to WordPress. So I’m switching over to WordPress, and I’m redesiging the look of the whole thing while I’m at it.

Hopefully it will be done before the end of the year.

Some good news…commenting will be much more user-friendly. Specifically, you’ll be able to live preview your comments as you type them, and you’ll also be able to EDIT them (cue the angelic chorus) for 15 minutes following the initial submission.

I’m going to try and make the whole site feel cleaner and simpler, with a few Web 2.0 perks thrown in (like super-easy icons to refer articles to social bookmarking sites like Digg and Reddit).

Alas, I think the quill is going bye-bye. I liked it, it served us well, but progress demands that we pave that sucker over and build something new. Hopefully you’ll enjoy it.

Best Video I've Seen Yet

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This video was apparently made by a striking writer.

Perfectly done. The WGA should get this up on their site immediately.

I was planning on a rebuttal to Michael Eisner’s comments about how this strike is “stupid” because it’s about revenue that isn’t real, but this video pretty much blows that argument out of the water—and the brilliant part is that it does it with the CEO’s own words.

Anonymous creator of this video, great job. If you’re out there reading, email me so I can congratulate you.

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More, please…

It’s quite likely that a union can successfully wage a strike and still not convince a single damned person that what they’re doing makes sense. It’s not like these things are decided by popular vote.

On the other hand, the companies we’re fighting are notoriously sensitive to bad press. Sure, they are the press, but if we can do a good job of convincing people that our cause is just, it can only help.

Since the union struck, I’ve seen some explanations about why we’re fighting.

Some are good (nice job, WGA).

Some are super duper bad (ironically, you have to sit through a commercial to get to this streaming video…but gee, no one makes money off the internet!)

What’s missing, however, is a compelling reason for residuals that anyone, including your deaf aunt, can understand.

John August has a piece running on this tomorrow, and it’s a good one. He stresses why residuals are good things…citing what I call the “Marc Cherry” rule, i.e. residuals can keep writers afloat during the lean times, allowing them to stay in the business, support their families, and stick around long enough to create a huge hit that sends boatloads of profit to the companies.

But even if no one needed residuals, we should still get them.

I hear this complaint quite a bit these days: “I don’t have to pay the architect every time I walk into a building” or “I don’t have to pay my plumber every time I use the sink he fixed.”

That’s right.

You don’t.

But authors of movies (and I consider the authors to be the screenwriters and directors) create something quite different than “blueprints for a single building” or “fixed sink.”

Imagine two guys. One guy writes terrific recipes. The other guy is a fantastic baker. Together, they create a magic cake.

Bear with me.

What’s special about the cake is that you can cut a slice from it, and a new slice will just grow back in its place.

You keep cutting it and serving it, and you never run out of that cake.

Wal-Mart decides to start selling slices of this cake.

They pay the two guys a good amount for the cake, as far as that sort of thing goes. Maybe a hundred bucks.

But Wal-Mart sells each slice for three bucks, and they keep selling them and selling them.

Over and over.

Millions of slices of the same damned single cake.

Shouldn’t the two guys get some small amount of money back on each sale? Maybe four cents?

Maybe eight?

But definitely something?

Movies are a special class of intellectual property. Like music or novels, they can be endlessly reproduced and sold in millions of multiples. One movie can be sold and resold and repackaged and redistributed and rebroadcast and redownloaded and reprojected over and over and over…

If the seller can endlessly exploit this single, unique product, shouldn’t the true authors of that work share in each endless exploitation?

A plumber can only fix your sink once.

An architect’s building is built once.

But not a movie. Not a television show.

So if someone asks you why we deserve to get paid each time someone buys a copy of a movie, tell them about the magic cake.

If they slap you because your analogies are tortured and weird, I apologize in advance.

Not A Word

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It appeared in Variety yesterday.

If you’re a WGAw screenwriter, you can still add your name to the online version.

When I was asked to sign this, I did offer a full disclosure that I could theoretically provide A-H exceptions over the course of the next two weeks (although so far, we’ve been bang on script).

This did not deter them from including my name, which makes me happy, because I will, in fact, be entirely “not a word” in two weeks no matter what.

The WGAE also ran an ad that you can see here.

Cuz it ain’t Patric Verrone.

Sorry, Patric, but I just think you’re a little out there.

No, my guild hero is a guy named Howard Michael Gould.

Howard and I are friends, we’re political allies (for Guild stuff, at least), and he’s one of the most decent guys I know in this business.

Watch this video.

The only standing ovation of the night, they say, and it’s easy to see why.

Calm, rational, moderate, clear, non-religious, bottom line, and cogent as hell.

Take a look.

I’d vote for this guy any day of the week.

C.

The Farmer And The Cowman

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C’mon, love each other
Well, this caught me by surprise…although now that I think about it, it’s sort of obvious.

I expect a certain amount of strife and conflict in the comments section, but I was taken aback by the sudden emergence of an above-the-line vs. below-the-line war that started taking shape.

Below-the-line commenters started bitching about how the writers were soft-soled dandies who don’t know what real work is, and writers started yammering about how below-the-liners wouldn’t have a job, purpose or existence if the scripts went away.

But you know, guys…the farmer and the cowman should be friends.

We’ve got the big bad AMPTP out there as a common enemy. Let’s not turn on each other. Not right now.

Like I said, the reason for this conflict is pretty apparent in hindsight. A writers’ strike digs right into the livelihoods of our below-the-line brothers and sisters. They have it bad enough with runaway production. Now, the remaining jobs are getting pinched by the strike.

And when you damage people’s abilities to put food on the table, clothe their children and fill their tanks, things get emotional.

Let me try and add some perspective here.

I’m a writer. I’m very proud of the fact that first, before all else, comes my mind. If I and my fellow writers stop imagining, then that’s pretty much it. No more movie and television industry.

I’m also a director and producer. I’m there with the crew from sunup to sundown and long after. And I know that without them, it doesn’t matter what I’ve written or imagined. No them, no movie.

Pick your favorite dualism.

Mind-body.

Architect-builder

Trigger-bullet

Doesn’t matter.

The point is that we’re dead without each other. Above and below the line are essential to the process. Yes, some skills are rarer than others. Screenwriting (at least, the kind done well enough to garner work year in and year out) is a rarer talent than, say, location scouting.

I’m not saying location scouting is easy. It’s not. And I’m not saying I’d be any good at it (I wouldn’t).

I’m saying that there are more location scouts working in any given year than writers, because screenwriting talent is just rarer.

And so, you know, supply and demand.

That doesn’t mean location scouts or dolly grips or camera operators or riggers labor any less than writers do.

They sure as hell don’t.

My call time is one of the earlier ones, but it’s not the earliest. I’m due at work tomorrow at 6 AM. People will be working for me and the production at 5 AM or earlier.

When we’re talking about labor unions and labor action, it’s important to remember that we’re all the same in the companies’ eyes.

We’re laborers. Fingers on a hand, okay?

And as a filmmaker, I have to say…I have an enormous love and respect for the work a good crew does. I judge people for their competence at their job and their commitment to doing it well.

I expect the same in return.

When it all comes together, it’s incredibly gratifying and humbling.

So below-the-liners…remember, writers are often intimidated by you and the set, because we’re so often excluded from that world. Don’t confuse unfamiliarity with disinterest or arrogance. Welcome us, and teach us. Don’t laugh when we don’t know the lingo.

Writers, don’t think that the crew owes you their jobs. They don’t. We don’t hire them, and they earn every damn nickel they make. That much I know. Don’t look down on them, respect their working space and honor their labor.

Sure, one man likes to push a dolly, the other likes to write a script…but that’s no reason why they can’t be brothers.

So hug it out, people.

We’ll get through this, but it will be a whole lot easier if we do it together.

Dead And Alive

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counter_nick_02.jpg
Okay, then strike.
The strike is on.

From what I’m hearing, it’s the usual he-said, she-said, but the bottom line is this: both sides finally got all of their stupid crap off the table (and for those of you who honestly though the WGA really really really meant that DVD increase demand, all I can say is…listen more closely to Uncle Craig next time, okay?)…and still…

…the AMPTP wouldn’t step up on The One Issue.

This strike is mostly the fault of the AMPTP, in my humble opinion. They had a choice here. Once the other demands were gone, they were in a perfectly good position to finally start talking in a real way about internet residuals, and they chose instead to insist on the DVD rate for electronic sell-through…and their ridiculous “promotional” position on streaming.

Nonsense.

On the other hand, the Guild bears some fault as well. They played their strike threat hand well, but I think they seriously believed their own hype. They convinced themselves that the AMPTP would wobble in the face of a strike.

Wrongo.

Any of you see that South Park where sanctimonious intellectuals stand around smelling their own farts?

Yeah.

Anyway, here we are. I’m not sure we wouldn’t be here if, say, I had been running the Guild. No way I’d ever take the DVD rate for internet sales.

Still, the backchannels will continue. And in a weird way, both sides have accomplished something very positive.

We’ve finally broomed the crap off the table. It’s down to the real issue.

One last thing.

I have to amend my “praise the leadership!” post from a few days ago.

The one about The Teamsters.

I praise the leadership for convincing everyone that the Teamsters were going to support us. In reality, the WGA is picketing studios between 9 AM and 5 PM.

Trucks come in before 9 AM, and they leave after 5 PM, so this isn’t really conducive to getting Teamster support…

Furthermore, I know that writers will be picketing Warner Brothers today…but at one gate.

Warner Brothers has…I think 9 gates…maybe 8. But more than one.

So I wouldn’t be counting on anything valuable from this alliance of the unions’ leaderships, although I still believe that the rank and file of the Teamster Brotherhood are behind us, and I know I’m behind them.

Lastly, if you see writers out on the line today…do more than honk your horn. Talk to them. Shake their hands. Tell them that you’re behind their fight to ensure their rights as authors…and to secure those rights for the writers who are yet to come.

I hate this strike, I hate the circumstances that led to it, I hate the missteps that occurred along the way, and I really hate to say “I told you so” to all the people who said “Patric Verrone will keep us out of a strike!!!”….

…but the strike is here.

Back it all the way.

And if the companies are serious about eliminating residuals (which is what much of their proposal would achieve), then back it to the death.

Good Night, And Good Luck

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I’ve got a 6:30 AM call time tomorrow, so it’s off to bed with me.

The kind of negotiating I have hoped for all along…the intense kind, with the key decision-makers huddled together in a room…news blackout…etc….is still underway.

Might work.

Might not.

When I wake up, I guess I’ll know.

If it’s a strike, then it failed.

If there’s a deal (unlikely), then it succeeded.

More likely…if the WGA agrees to postpone the strike for a limited amount of time—say a week or something like that—then it means there’s a deal in the making.

I hope I rise to good news, but I’m ready for bad.

[Five minutes after Craig posted this, the word came in: No deal was reached. - Ted]

I'm Hearing Things...

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Whispers of progress.

To all parties on both sides seeking to find common ground and make a deal…

…I’m rooting for you with all my might.

The Strike Starts Monday

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Use this thread for now to discuss the strike.

I’ll post my thoughts on this over the weekend, but I’ll give you a preview.

Given the circumstances, we have to strike. However, these circumstances didn’t have to be the circumstances, and we’re most definitely screwed.

NPR - Air Talk Report

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I was on Larry Mantle’s program this morning. You can listen to it here.

My segment starts around the 9:45 mark. During it, Carol Leifer calls in, as does a veteran of the SAG commercial strike.

Pulling Teeth

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teeth.jpeg
In just a few minutes, the WGA contract will expire.

And then, I’m afraid, it’s likely the WGA will go on strike.

Why?

Well, I’m tempted to respond “Who cares?” because, you know, who cares?

Once we hit the bricks, does it matter why?

Yeah, it does. Maybe someone ten years from now will wonder how things got this way, and maybe then they’ll avoid it.

Today, on the last day of the contract, the AMPTP made a proposal that should have been their opening, discardable volley months ago.

And today, on the last of the contract, the WGA continued to plant its flag over issues that should have been part of their opening, discardable volley months ago.

Well, no one’s discarding much.

The AMPTP finally got around to offering us the DVD rate for internet sales, which Disney had already offered us over a year ago when iTunes started selling movies.

[Hey, Craig. Never done this before, but a small clarification: the AMPTP offered to “continue” to pay residuals on “electronic sell-through” at the DVD rate in their limited proposal from July 16, first day of negotiations. - Ted]

And the WGA finally got around to…well…not much. They’re still insisting on doubling the home video rate and getting jurisdiction over reality, animation, new media and, I think, some emerging industries on the Moon or something.

Watching this “negotiation” develop has been awful. Both sides have been pulling teeth for months, and now they’re both standing there with bloody mouths and nothing to show for it.

What a failure of imagination on the part of the AMPTP and the Guild.

Yes, the Guild too.

I once heard a very smart man say “A strike is a failure.”

That man is Doug Allen, the Executive Director of SAG.

He’s right.

A strike is a failure. I’m sure that Patric Verrone and the current Guild leadership agree to some extent. They ran on a platform promising membership an alternative to the “old choice of strike or cave.”

And everyone said “Sounds great!”

Except a few of us who said, “Here comes a picket line.”

In my opinion, what we’re seeing now isn’t the product of cold rationalists silently calculating that a strike outweighs the alternatives.

What we’re seeing now is the result of acrimony. The Guild decided to throw some punches at the Big Bully’s face, mostly because they felt like they hadn’t thrown any punches in a while, and that makes a guy look like a weeny.

The Big Bully, as it turns out, is a jerk who needs to then punish the Weeny for daring to throw those punches…even though they didn’t connect.

This last year could be described as The Rise Of The Adolescent.

Month after month, we saw little more than lashing out. Patric Verrone said “If the companies think a strike is the worst that can happen, they don’t know what the worst is.”

Ooooooh. Scary, albeit meaningless and, as it turns out, factually incorrect.

Then Nick Counter took out a full page ad in Variety telling the WGA membership that their leadership was insane and AMPTP-WGA relations were at an all time low.

Ooooooooh. Terrifying, albeit meaningless and, as it turns out, factually incorrect.

And so the teeth have been pulled since then, one by one, until we find ourselves here, on the verge of disaster.

Still trying to gut separated rights. Still trying to rollback the writers.

Still trying to refight a DVD battle that was lost 20 years ago. Still trying to rescue a disastrous attempt to organize reality television.

And yet…

…still….

………it’s not over until it’s over.

When you look past all the whining and posturing and Kool-Aidy yammering from both sides, here’s one unemotional, inarguable, immutable fact.

There’s got to be a number between .3 and 2.5 that will satisfy both sides.

Right?

Has to be.

If they’re saying “We don’t want to give more than .3” and we’re saying “We don’t want to take less than 2.5” then everyone in the world knows what that really means is:

“We’re starting at .3”

and

“We’re starting at 2.5”

So here are three possibilities.

First possibility: the AMPTP has already internally decided what their bottom line number is, and they will let the WGA and anyone else strike until they turn blue, but they’re not budging. If that’s their decision, then the die is cast here. Nothing left to do but go limp and enjoy the car crash.

Second possibility: the AMPTP is no longer interesting in bargaining with us (pick a reason, any reason). They’ll let us walk and turn to the DGA in order to find that magical number between .3 and 2.5. They’ll set the rate with the DGA, and then that will be that.

Third possibility: the AMPTP wants to bargain with us, but they want to soften us up a bit with a strike. Get us out on a line, then reel us back in with an offer that’s better than .3…..but not as good as we’d like. Much harder to walk away from money on the table, goes the theory.

I say three possibilities…there are certainly more…but those are the ones that come to mind right now.

Either way, I think a strike is in the cards. Nothing will change my mind about this: we didn’t have to be here. There was a way to play this game that would have avoided a strike and gotten us a deal. We didn’t play it right, and they didn’t play it right.

Both sides failed.

I’m angry at both of them.

Twenty-nine minutes to go.

Does either side even have the will to try anymore?

Don’t hold your breath.

On the AMPTP website, Nick Counter has a long statement that essentially boils down to this: if the WGA drops its DVD demands, they’re willing to talk turkey on internet download residuals.

“Great,” thought I.

And then I read this.

…no further movement is possible to close the gap between us so long as your DVD proposal remains on the table. In referring to DVDs, we include not only traditional DVDs, but also electronic sell-through — i.e., permanent downloads. As you know, we believe that electronic sell-through is synonymous with DVD.

Wha-huh???

Electronic sell-through is synonymous with DVD?

No.

DVD stands for Digital Video Disc (I think it was originally Digital Versatile Disc, but whatever).

That’s Digital Video Disc.

Disc.

You buy a DISC.

When you download a movie, you do not buy a disc.

You do not buy the package for the disc.

You do not pay for the manufacture of the disc.

Nor do you own a disc.

You buy digital information. Ones and zeroes.

Internet sell-through is NOT DVD, it is NOT home video, and if that’s the game the AMPTP is playing on internet downloads, this is going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better.

So That's What I Sound Like

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Hmmm.

Here’s a short interview I did for KNX radio here in Southern California.

The radio folks sound very good.

I sound like a guy on a cellphone five minutes away from being called back to the set.

I’m also fairly fond of the word “fairly.”

Captain's Blog

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Got a nice email today from a Contract Captain (those are the people we’ll call Strike Captains should a labor action occur) named Kate Purdy.

Dear Craig, Thanks for continuing to post about the negotiations. Your page is a great resource, even if it is only your opinion. Some of us Contract Captains have started a blog. Trying to get the word out, as well. We linked it to your blog - so people have multiple places to get information. It’s called unitedhollywood.com. The purpose is to get our perspective out to, and beyond our membership - to continue to build union solidarity.
Best, Kate Purdy

Sounds good to me. One of their bloggers, DJ, has a pretty smart piece up referencing NBC head Jeff Zucker’s recent comments about iTunes.

From his piece…

“Apple sold millions of dollars worth of hardware off the back of our content, and made a lot of money,” Zucker said. “They did not want to share in what they were making off the hardware or allow us to adjust pricing.”

Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Writers, directors, and actors all want to share in the “millions of dollars” the AMPTP makes “off the back of our content”.

It sure does sound familiar.

Welcome to the blogosphere, United Hollywood. Glad you guys read my stuff here, and I’m looking forward to seeing what you run over there.

A Brief Disclaimer

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I wish I lived in a world where this was as obvious as I think it is, but I guess I don’t.

Some people out there seem to think that I either:

a) speak for the WGA, or

b) believe I speak for the WGA

I don’t.

I speak for myself.

I am one person, the articles I post on this website express my opinions, I hold no position on the WGAw Board of Directors, I am not on the Negotiating Committee, and I represent no organization.

Various new outlets contact me through the site, because they read it. They ask for quotes or interviews, which I occasionally grant, but just as often do not. I do not identify myself in any way other than as an individual. I am, for a lack of a better phrase, a “talking head.” A commentator. An independent analyst.

Oh, and a union member.

I do not pay for publicity, nor do I retain the services of a publicist.

Okay, disclaimer done. Back to the important stuff.

Well Done, Leadership!

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teamsters.jpeg
Thanks, Brothers!
Well, I’m pretty sure one of our commenters broke some news yesterday…the Teamsters are going to (sort of) back a possible WGA strike.

This is big news.

From Variety:

The Teamsters union — representing about 4,000 Hollywood drivers, location managers and scouts, casting directors and animal wranglers — is giving the WGA’s strike plans a major boost with a show of solidarity that could seriously disrupt local production.

The leader of Teamsters Local 399 is advising members, as long as they’re acting as individuals, that they should honor WGA picket lines. The Writers Guild of America could go strike as early as Thursday; negotiations resume today at the Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers.

In a message posted Monday, secretary-treasurer Leo Reed said Local 399 can’t strike, picket or boycott a producer while its contract is in effect but added that those restrictions don’t apply to individuals.

“As for me as an individual, I will not cross any picket line whether it is sanctioned or not because I firmly believe that Teamsters do not cross picket lines,” Reed said in the message.

What does that mean?

Well, the Teamsters can’t honor a picket line institutionally (so yeah, Mona was wrong). However, part of their deal is that if their council sanctions, or approves, of another union’s strike, then individual Teamsters cannot be disciplined for refusing to cross a picket line.

And in a not-so-subtle message on the Hollywood Teamsters’ home page, their Division Director, Leo Reed, announced that he would be one of those individuals who wouldn’t cross a line.

The upshot?

Panic.

I was shooting on the backlot at Paramount today, and I heard that the studio is reassigning all trucks and deliveries to go off-lot, in case of a picket line. Could be rumor, could be true. Seems like smart planning to me…particularly if the companies are taking the Teamster announcement seriously, which they pretty much have to.

The strategic upshot?

This just might help avert a strike.

Finally, at long last, we’ve got a real way to enhance our strike threat. Organizing reality was an abortion, organizing animation was a boondoggle, the corporate campaigns fizzled, the attempt to disrupt product integration was naive and impotent…

…but this is for real.

The Teamsters can shut a company down faster and more completely than any other union in town.

Now that the companies have to worry about an instant shutdown if the WGA strikes, they’re going to have to do a better job of bargaining.

And if they do a better job of bargaining, our side might actually get something to work with in negotiations.

Look, if Verrone is hell-bent on striking, then none of this matters. We’re all screwed, and there’s a bad deal in our future.

But if he’s not…and all I can do is hope that he’s not…this is a terrific strategic gain. We just amped up their fear level and made the threat of a strike far more potent.

And like any supporter of gun rights, I believe that showing you have a loaded gun is a good way to avoid having to shoot a loaded gun.

Well done, leadership. This was a huge step closer to your promise of an alternative to “strike or cave.”

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How it must end…in the end
For the last week, I’ve been getting what I’ve begun to dub “The Call.” It comes from a producer, then an agent, then a studio executive, then a studio chairman, the president of production here, a fellow writer, a director…

“So…are you guys gonna strike or what?”

And of course, I have to say “I don’t know.”

But since everyone’s asked, I suppose I could offer my plan for avoiding a strike.

I had hoped that my union would have acted smartly by now and responded to last week’s signal from the AMPTP. The removal of their regressive residuals proposal wasn’t just an empty gesture. Think of it as the equivalent of Senator Craig tapping his foot under that bathroom stall.

It was a question.

“Wanna negotiate?”

The WGA’s silence has been deafening and no doubt has confirmed for the AMPTP that we do not want to negotiate, but are instead hell bent on a strike.

And yet…I don’t think that’s true.

I just think the WGA is bad at playing the signals game (and at this point, we must leave the Senator Craig analogy behind, before the rest of this article devolves into hand-waving and anonymous man-on-man bathroom action, Minneapolis style).

So I turn to you men and women of the AMPTP.

Wanna avoid a strike?

Here’s what you do.

Drop your proposals to gut separated rights. Drop your proposals to drop publicity for credited writers. Drop your proposals to apply residuals against other payments. Indeed, drop all of your rollback proposals, because they’re regressive and punitive.

And who are you punishing?

Patric Verrone?

Hey, go for it. Smart guy, but definitely a bit nuts, and I can’t blame you for feeling frustrated.

On the other hand, Patric Verrone’s not the one you’re talking about here. Hell, Patric usually works in animation, which doesn’t have most of the stuff you’re talking about rolling back anyway!

You’re punishing me. Your proposals are a gut-shot to the working screen and television writers who supply you with hit movies and hit hour-longs and hit half-hours.

So give us a break.

Take that crap off the table. We all know you don’t mean it anyway.

It’s payback, right? You’re still pissed at the WGA for that flop of a reality campaign. Granted, you found it obnoxious and meddlesome…but guys…you won, okay? The campaign failed. It failed big.

Or maybe you’re pissed at the WGA for asking for more DVD money. But look…we’ve asked for more DVD money every three frickin’ years since 1985. Why should this year be any different? And let’s face it…the result won’t be any different either.

So get over it. Okay? Get over the shot to your pride, get over Patric (who is just one of a lot of people in that room, many…if not most…of whom are more moderate than he), get over David Young, get over the public insults and the immoderate speeches.

You think writers are children?

Fine.

Then act like the adults you think you are.

The children are obviously holding their breath right now, but if your kids turn blue, you’re going to suffer as well.

To avoid a strike, take away all the rollbacks and offer to bargain seriously over a rate for internet downloads.

If the Guild fails to respond, then you’ll finally know that Patric would have gone on strike no matter what…for guts or glory or God-knows-what…and you can sleep well knowing that you honestly tried.

Of course, if you’re not interested in avoiding a strike, then stick with the current plan. It’s working.

Either way, it looks like you have the burden of adulthood.

You know.

Responsibility.

Be smart, AMPTP. Please. There’s still a way out.

A Call For Propaganda

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Someone sent me a link to a site called Writers Bloc Comix, which is dedicated to “The Strength and Solidarity of the WGA.”

Well, that’s cool, except it’s pretty lame.

And kind of insulting to actors, who we sort of need to support us in a huge way right now.

These things don’t upset me in any real way. Obviously, the creators of the site have their hearts in the right place. My reaction is more one of embarrassment.

Putting relative issues of quality aside (although honestly, shouldn’t we be going to our best and brightest for the creation of propaganda?), I think what this type of stuff tweaks in me is my general distaste for organized religion.

I’m an agnostic (I think…I can’t prove God’s not real, but I’m pretty certain that knowledge of anything even approaching the description of “God” is far beyond the grasp of humans). More importantly, I detest group think. I hate rallying cries, I don’t like slogans or buzzwords, I get sweaty around culty thinking or “movements,” and in general, I get rashy around mobs, be they literate or otherwise.

I don’t march.

There are no parades for guys like me.

So when I see this sort of stuff, which is marked more by a naive sense of jingoism than any real critical thinking, I get squeamish. It’s not that it’s bad. I think stuff like this is probably useful (perhaps moreso if done better).

On the other hand, if it all feels empty and cultish, then I don’t think it should be out there at all. Writers may be stereotyped in negative ways by some, but everyone probably agrees that we’re pretty good at sniffing out bullshit.

This stuff feels like bullshit.

I guess what I’m saying is…it’s not that we need less propaganda at a time like this.

We just need better propaganda at a time like this.

Low Visibility

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The view
from here
Things are getting murky.

Following the successful SAV, the Guild returns to the negotiating table with the AMPTP. Right now, the Guild appears to have momentum. The AMPTP took their residuals revamp off the table, the Guild got a good turnout and a good result for the SAV, and while the companies aren’t completely flat-footed, it’s safe to say that the Guild pulled a bit of a Crazy Ivan on them, and that’s enough to rattle any opponent.

But how will this translate?

At this point, I really don’t know anymore.

I think the lack of visibility plays to the Guild’s favor.

Right now, the possible scenarios as I see them are…

  1. The Guild strikes on November 1st, and the companies turn to the DGA to try and make a deal.

  2. The Guild strikes on November 1st, the DGA tells the companies they won’t deal while the Guild is on strike, so the companies try and back-channel a deal to end the strike.

  3. The Guild works past the deadline for a few weeks, then strikes in mid-to-late November, with the same DGA variables as above.

  4. The Guild doesn’t strike at all, but keeps working past the deadline, because potentially fruitful negotiations are beginning.

  5. The Guild doesn’t strike at all, because the DGA steps in right away on November 1st to announce the frameworks of a deal, and the WGA takes a wait-and-see attitude, which leads to a DGA deal, followed by a WGA deal.

There’s probably a few other scenarios here, but those are the ones that immediately come to mind. As you can see, SAG doesn’t figure into any of these, because in my mind, they’re very unlikely to bargain early with the companies. For SAG, the WGA has to be a bit of a godsend right now. We can be their canary in a coalmine.

The DGA is the big question mark. I’ve heard rumors ranging from “The DGA won’t even talk to the companies if the WGA is on strike, because the AFL-CIO won’t let them” to “The DGA already has a deal in place, and they’re just finalizing the details with the companies.”

Who the hell knows?

We’ve entered the fog. If I had to guess, I suppose the smart money is now on a strike…probably a very early one. November 1st.

I suspect that the fog will lift in about seven days. One week from now, I think the future of this negotiation will be pretty clear.

For the sake of everyone who works in this business, l hope things turn around quickly.

Quick newsflash.

The SAV passed.

The stats.

5,507 votes 4,974 Yes (90.3%) 533 No (9.7%)

That’s a decent result for the Guild. The turnout was higher than most turnouts, but lower than ideal. The 90% is right at the border of what you hope for in a SAV.

That 533 number is a bit worrisome.

Either way, it’s a victory for the Guild in terms of leverage.

If they use this as impetus for a strike, then it’s a loss for us all. Perhaps a necessary one, perhaps not. The next few weeks will tell.

Your Vote Is Not Private

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The WGA is watching
I received a very disturbing email yesterday.

As most of you know, I’m directing a movie right now, so I sneak away during big lighting changes to write these entries when I can. And I’ve been pretty sick for the last week as well (two kids with croup = me with bronchitis). As such, even though I’m publicly on record supporting a YES vote for the Strike Authorization, I didn’t fill out my ballot. Just kept putting it off.

But that’s okay…I knew I didn’t have to send the ballot in. A few days ago, someone told me you could do a proxy vote online at the WGAw website, so that’s what I was planning to do.

And then I got the email.

It was from a member who I shall not name. She’s my “strike captain.” And she told me that the Guild had informed her that I had not yet voted, and she urged me to vote.

What…

…the…

……hell????

For as long as I’ve been a member of this union (12 years and counting now), every single vote we’ve ever taken has been a secret ballot. No one knows who votes or who doesn’t vote, and no one shares that information with other members. Furthermore, there was absolutely no indication in the voting materials that this ballot would be handled in any different way than any ballots before it.

Secret ballotting is, in my opinion, a fundamental requirement for a properly functioning democratic election.

Let’s think about this.

Someone on the Guild staff is collecting ballots and checking off who votes and who doesn’t.

The “you didn’t vote” group gets sorted into a…lazy pile?

Or perhaps a “disloyal” pile?

And who is supervising this election? An independent 3rd party, as we normally have?

Certainly doesn’t seem like it, since this sort of thing never happened in any of the other votes I’ve been a part of.

Now that they have their “you didn’t vote” list, then they share that information with other members. The good, loyal ones.

Those members then pressure the non-voters to vote.

In principle, I support a high turnout, and I was absolutely intending to vote. And of all the members in the union, I’m probably one of a dozen who have taken a widely public stance in support of a “yes.”

But now I’m not voting.

I will not be coerced by my union to vote. Nor will I support any union election that violates the privilege of a secret ballot. If the staff is tallying who voted, then what’s stopping them from seeing who voted how?

Will they make a list of the “no” voters?

And if they do, any guesses as to how long that list gets leaked?

Are you now, or have you ever been against the strike?

Why haven’t you cast your ballot in support of Your Leaders, dear citizen-member?

What they’re doing isn’t illegal. It’s just unethical and immoral and wrong, and I’m disgusted with leadership for daring to be so bold, and for abandoning such an obvious and necessary prerequisite for a fair and decent democratic referendum.

I call upon the Board of Directors of the Writers Guild of America, west to repudiate this policy, and to state clearly that all votes of the general membership be adminstered solely by an independent third party, that all voting information be held in the strictest of confidence, and that no members should be privy to other members’ voting records in any way.

If they fail to enact this policy, then I’ll go over their heads. I’ll go to the membership with a petition to amend the Constitution so that I know this never happens again.

I support a “yes” vote. But I also support the right of any member to vote “no” or to abstain from voting as they choose with total privacy and complete freedom from accusation, pressure, intimidation or recrimination.

The Guild should be ashamed.


Addendum

I almost always post my comments along with everyone else’s, but I wasn’t clear enough in this main post, and the comments below reflect some of that, so I want to set the record straight.

Of course there has to be a record that individuals voted. I’ve been voting in this union since 1995. Every time I’ve voted, I’ve had to sign and print my name on the envelope carrying my ballot.

It’s not like I suddenly got amnesia and forgot about that.

The difference between all those other votes and the current one is simply this: those envelopes were sent to an independent election supervision entity, where they were compared to membership rolls and tallied by independent parties who did not work for the Guild, nor were members of the Guild, nor have ever been members of the Guild.

The counting of ballots and verification of voter eligibility is an essential task that must be performed by disinterested third parties.

Not by the Guild itself.

This is obvious and fundamental. It’s so obvious and fundamental, it’s the way the union has conducted every single election I’ve been a part of…until now.

Thus, it’s painfully obvious to me that the change in procedure is not a lapse or a coincidence, but an intentional one designed to bring about precisely the kind of voting interference that I experienced yesterday.

Furthermore, the intentional sharing of such information with other voting members is a crass and blatant violation of my voting privacy.

That’s all. The conversation continues below…

Okay, Now It's Our Turn

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Today, the AMPTP announced it was taking its residuals revamp proposal off the table.

Well done, AMPTP.

(By the way, how awesome was my timing? I put up an article, and boom! This happens! Total coincidence, of course, but it beats being a day late)

Now, I assume the rest of their odious proposals are still out there, but how can anyone not see this as at least the semblance of an olive branch?

They’ve made a move in the right direction.

If my guild’s leadership is smart, they will respond in kind. Maybe we take away one of our crazier demands (I have some thoughts on that, but I won’t get in their way on this). Then the AMPTP takes away another nutty demand, and so do we…and on it goes until there’s one issue left.

You know.

The one that matters.

Time to step up, WGA. You got the other side to blink. Reward that. Get past the bluster, and get down to business. There are tens of thousands of working people hoping that a deal can be found.

The least we can do is try and find a way to deal.

The Bad Guy

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I’m a union guy. I was raised in a union household (my parents were public school teachers), I’m currently a dues-paying member of three unions (WGAw, DGA, IATSE), and if I do one more featured voice-over role, I’ll join SAG as well.

I believe in unions.

And I love my unions.

But my first love, my greatest love, will always be the WGAw. I’d like to think that I’ll keep directing films, but they have to be written first. I’ll always write first, and I’ll always be a writer first.

I want to be clear that when I criticize the leadership of my union, it’s because I love my union. I want our union to succeed. And there’s only one thing that makes me angrier than bad union tactics or poor union strategy or union corruption or union stupidity.

And that’s greedy management.

Thus, I thought I’d take a little time today to swivel the barrel of my gun toward the AMPTP. Say what you will about Verrone and David Young (and I do), but the bottom line is that I share their goals.

The AMPTP, however, has been acting atrociously. For those of you who don’t know, the proposal they currently have on the table isn’t just bad.

It’s immoral.

The first offense is their suggestion that residuals be tied to profit. I’ve already eviscerated that nonsense in another article, so I’ll simply refer you to that. If you want the executive summary, it goes like this: residuals are for the reuse of the fruits of our authorship. They must forever be tied to authorship. They are not a reward for the proper or improper work of the cast, the director, the producer, the editor or the marketing department. Period, the end, strike to the death over this if we must.

The second offense is the notion that residuals could be applied against up front money. In other words, if you’re paid more than scale, the company could attempt to “recoup” residuals out of your fee for writing.

Hell no.

Once again, residuals are not labor fees, they are reuse fees. It doesn’t matter how much you earn. That’s why we all get the same residual rate, regardless of how much we make up front. If the companies are serious about this redefinition, then they will need to stop using the word “residual” and start using the word “bullshit.”

Because that’s what this proposal is. And again…strike to the death.

Third offense—the elimination of separated rights. Our separated rights are already an impoverished version of the rights all American non-work-for-hire authors retain. They were fought for and won in the past, and they are absolutely worth fighting for today. Even if Hollywood weren’t currently attempting to turn every feature film release into a musical (thus triggering separated rights for screenwriters of original works), this would be a non-starter.

If they’re serious about this…then I’m gonna have to go with…

…strike to the death.

Fourth offense—a proposal that would eliminate the requirement to include the writers’ names in advertising, even in situations where the director or producer is included.

Strike.

To.

The.

Death.

But here’s the thing. All of that stuff is prologue to the big one. Internet.

Forget jurisdiction over animation, DVD residuals, creative rights (sadly), and everything else that the WGA wants to argue about. The only one that matters right now is finding good reuse formulae for the internet.

Naturally, the AMPTP proposal for the internet stinks. It’s horrid.

So…strike to the death?

No.

Here’s my basic principle.

I’m a moderate kind of guy. So if I think a proposal is worth the Strike Of Death™, then I’m going to presume that the AMPTP surely isn’t serious about it.

And yeah, I called them Shirley.

I think all of the above is hateful, unnecessary, intentionally provocative crap…except the internet proposal, which I hope is just a crappy starting point toward a good, fair-minded, let’s-end-this-25-year-war deal.

Now, I’ve tried to get my union to concentrate on The One Issue That Binds Us, because I think the other issues are distractions.

So now here’s my special little note to the AMPTP (and Ms. Brogliatti, hey…I hope you still love me, cuz I believe in you too…gotta be some more level heads like ours on each side of that table, right?)

AMPTP…drop your proposals. Get serious. Bargain in good faith. Silence the fringe voices on your side, and maybe you’ll find that the fringe voices on our side start to recede.

If not, you’re going to lose the moderates. There’s a lot of us. We’re active, and we vote. Right now, we’re watching and hoping.

But don’t mistake our even tempers for acceptance or an inclination to appease.

If you’re not serious about your proposals, then please get serious in a useful way.

If you are serious…

…then I’ll see you on the picket line.

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There’s a really nice profile of The Artful Writer in the Wall Street Journal today. I think I can declare victory if I get away with calling the AMPTP’s proposals “nuts” and still get a nice quote from their spokesperson.

Getting dubbed “Hollywood’s Must-See” ain’t bad either, and it’s probably the first and last time I’ll earn that moniker.

I did want to add a slight bit of context to one quote. I said:

When it comes to union matters, I am the only game in town on this right now…

That’s mostly true. WriterAction is also out there, but they’re WGA-members-only, so in terms of public blogs, I’m the only game in town for this stuff.

At least, the only one I know of. Apologies to anyone else doing any serious coverage of this stuff. If you are, I’d love to know about it (and possibly offer a link).

Meanwhile, here’s the latest.

Things are getting worse.

The WGA rhetoric has now turned toward DVD residuals, which is utter nonsense. Everyone in the negotiating room knows that DVD residuals are the epitome of a sailed ship. Harping on doubling that rate is as pointless and absurd as the companies’ proposal to tie residuals to profit.

The fact that we seem to be moving backwards in terms of the seriousness of rhetoric is deeply disturbing. With weeks to go, tensions have steeply mounted. Furthermore, the companies have essentially initiated a lockout on feature writers. They’re not spending any more money on feature writing (so we hear) until a deal is struck.

I am growing quickly impatient with our side’s inability to knuckle down on the only topic that matters. DVDs, jurisdiction over animation and reality, product integration…all of it should be pushed aside. We’re beyond the point where red herrings and posturing are at all valuable.

If the AMPTP won’t grow up and talk like adults to us, then it’s incumbent upon us to claim the high ground. If we won’t, then saying “well they were acting like asses too” will serve as cold comfort on the picket line.

More to come.

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….and vote
So, I’m a long-standing critic of the Verrone Administration, I think Patric and David Young have been strike-happy from the start, I think they’ve mismanaged our negotiating strategy since it began, I know that the last strike that they attempted (America’s Next Top Model) was an unmitigated disaster, and I’m not particularly impressed with their statements-to-deeds truth ratio.

But I’m going to vote “yes” for a strike authorization.

Wha-huh?

Have I fallen for the party line?

Not really.

The party line says that a 99% strike authorization may help us avoid a strike, because it would give the union a potent weapon in negotiations—one that could precipitate a strike-negating deal.

Of course, that party line presumes that leadership doesn’t want a strike. And I’m not ready to presume that.

If one presumes that leadership does want a strike, then the strike authorization vote is just an obligatory precursor to war…tarted up as a strike-avoidance tactic.

And everyone voting “yes” is just a sucker.

There’s precedent to think the latter could be true. For instance, current WGAw VP David Weiss made it clear in the election of 2004 that Writers United had no intention to fire John McLean. A couple of days after the WU sweep, McLean was out on his ass. Similarly, WU ran under the banner of “finding an alternative to strike or cave,” and here they are, asking us for a strike authorization vote.

If one were skeptical (and you all know I am), it would be hard to ignore the emerging pattern. The WU group has repeatedly insisted that they’re not strike-happy (as critics painted them), and yet they’ve pretty much followed the playbook for a strike-happy leadership.

Walks like a duck, and all that.

Still, game theory must apply.

In this circumstance, I have to trust people that I don’t want to trust, because failing to trust them now will certainly hurt any chance we have as a union to get a decent deal, whereas trusting them might hurt my chance.

If the authorization vote is defeated or passes with less than flying colors, the WGA is permanently hamstrung. This is why I wish they hadn’t called for this vote at this time. This is why I wish they weren’t skipping the “big meeting” where everyone can get together in a big room, get super religious about everything and vote “yes” in massive waves.

But that’s a woulda-coulda-shoulda, I’m not in leadership, and this is the decision they’ve stuck us with (and by the way, despite their communication that this choice was a “unanimous” one, I’m hearing that it “became” unanimous once it was clear that it was going to pass, i.e. there’s still dissent and debate in the room, which is a heartening thing).

If the vote passes in a big way, there’s a chance that leadership will pull the trigger in a burst of Norma Rae exuberance, thereby dooming us to a premature, lengthy and probably ineffective strike. However, there’s also a chance that it might help in the negotiating room.

Certainly the execrable behavior of the companies has complicated matters for us moderates. Their initial proposal was so horrifying in scope and tone, it’s hard to legitimately sue for peace when it seems like the other side is girding for war. Yes, it may all be a reaction to a WGA leadership they despise, but some of the nastiness has an old ring to it, like this absurd notion that residuals should be tied to profit, rather than authorship.

Since a rejection of the authorization vote results in an absolutely bad outcome, and the approval of the authorization vote results in a possibly bad, possibly good, possibly neutral outcome, I’m afraid I see no legitimate option other than holding my nose, investing faith in the hitherto unreliable…

…and voting “yes.”

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Strike? Anyone?
Okay, so here’s a deviation from the narrative.

Even though this post is up at 1 PM, I got tipped off to this one yesterday (and wrote this last night). As such, I’m not reacting directly to Patric’s communication with the membership, but I know the basic gist.

The WGA is asking its membership for a strike authorization vote.

The SAV is essentially a green light for leadership to declare a strike. Once we give it, they can call it (well, they can call it the second our current deal expires, which is on Halloween).

Of course, they don’t have to call it.

And therein we find the rub.

There are two reasons to call an SAV at a time like this, with a deeply stalemated negotiation.

First, you call an SAV so that you can get your membership out on the picket line immediately following the deal’s expiration. Call this the “I’m taking my gun out of the holster because I plan on shooting you” reason.

Second, you call an SAV as a strategy, in the hope that the added pressure and (presumed) show of support from the rank-and-file will turn the heat up on the other side, forcing them to come across the gap to try in good faith to make a deal. Call this the “I’m taking my gun out of the holster to show you that I have a gun” reason.

So which is it this time?

And should you vote yes?

I’m deeply conflicted on this.

If I had to guess, I’d say this move is a tactic rather than a required step leading to a fait accompli. If the vote comes back strong, it really does embolden the union, and it should certainly rattle the AMPTP. Destabilization is required to break a stalemate.

However, it is my deeply held belief that some in WGA leadership (and perhaps many) not only want to strike, but have always wanted to strike, have been praying for a strike for years, and have constructed the political equivalent of a long con in order to get the strike they believe our union requires in order to reclaim some sense of identity, purpose and efficacy.

I would like to vote “yes” and give the moderates whatever strategic tool they require to make a deal.

I would like to vote “no” to keep the militants’ fingers off the big red button.

As one screenwriter I know put it (and I paraphrase): “There’s a reason Sheriff Andy wouldn’t let Barney Fife put bullets in his gun.”

Indeed.

Then there’s this to consider: even if the request is for tactical purposes, is this the right tactic?

Let’s presume that the vote comes back strongly in favor of the authorization. Okay. And let’s say the companies don’t budge.

Now what?

Do we just sit on that authorization? Feels like a public declaration of impotence to me. I worry that Chekhov’s Gun applies. Once you can, you pretty much have to at some point, or you’ve invalidated that tactic permanently.

Let’s say the vote comes back, and it’s tepid (and for these things, anything less than 90% is probably going to be considered tepid). Even worse. Now you’ve managed to publicly embarrass yourself and show a weak hand to the other side.

Here’s the bigger issue.

Why? Why are we still pretending that we matter?

The studios are far more frightened of SAG and the DGA than us. Why don’t we just keep driving through the middle without forcing our own hand? Soften the beaches however we can for the big guns?

Regardless, the die has been cast. Let’s see how the votes go. I expect a higher turnout for this than the election. If the turnout is low, that’s also disastrous.

When I decide how I’m going to vote, I’ll let you all know.

So Far, So Predictable

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Everything that has
transpired has done so
according to my design
While the mainstream media continues to struggle in their effort to decipher the current state of Hollywood labor strife, I’m sitting here (in my trailer at 6:45 AM, thankyouverymuch) wondering when this narrative is ever going to stray from the formula.

As you might recall, I made a few simple predictions about how things were going to unfold. The WGAw would tepidly re-elect the Verrone group (not in terms of margin, but turnout), the WGA would stalemate its way through its negotiations and agree to work past a deadline, SAG would continue to posture threateningly (last week its members had an election choice between “militant guy” and “really militant guy”), and the DGA would likely step in and negotiate early in an attempt to short circuit the path to war.

Well, Verrone & Co. are safely back in office, SAG’s still flexing its biceps, our negotiations (now in round two) haven’t generated any exciting headlines yet, and now, as if on cue…

(from THR)

With Hollywood writers enmeshed in cantankerous contract talks with the studios, the DGA already has begun strategy meetings of its own. The development is sure to fuel further speculation that the oft-independent-minded directors will swoop into the mix of contracts talks to forge a template for other entertainment guilds to follow—like it or not.

There’s not really a question here, regardless of the word “speculation.” The DGA, whose contract expires this summer around the same time SAG’s does, will absolutely be negotiating early.

So here’s what is a question.

How aggressive will they be?

On the one hand, the DGA membership is less reliant on residuals (particularly their below-the-line members). On the other hand, they’ve got a stronger hand to play than usual. Even though the guilds don’t work together, in a funny way, they do work together. The more credible the strike threat from the WGA/SAG, the more leverage the DGA has in their “we’ll save you from a strike” negotiation.

While the WGA uses the strike stick, the DGA uses the carrot of stability, and stability has a very large and very real value for the AMPTP companies.

In another twist, however. I suspect the DGA is aware that if they don’t nail down a reasonable formula for internet download residuals (and “reasonable” is the rub), then the WGA and SAG won’t swallow their pill, and a strike will ensue.

Furthermore, if the DGA doesn’t make a deal, it could be viewed by the WGA and SAG as a green light for a strike.

So if the DGA can’t make an early deal, the AMPTP has a major problem. If the DGA makes an early deal that doesn’t lock in a download rate, the AMPTP still has a major problem. But if the DGA makes a deal that does lock in a download rate, then folks…

…this one’s pretty much over.

SAG and the WGA will still have to haggle over various terms of the rate as they affect their memberships unique working issues, and there are certainly plenty of other matters to negotiate. The big one, though…the strike-worthy one…will be settled.

So, what’s my prediction?

I think the DGA will cut a deal. And I don’t think there will be a strike.

Signed,

Endlessly Optimistic

My last essay went over reeeeeeeeeally poorly with leadership (yeah, I heard from them), so I guess I’ll squeeze some more lighter fluid on the fire.

If you’re a WGAw member who attended an outreach meeting, you’re now getting emails from organizer Kim Hoffman that read as such:

Before anymore time passes I wanted to thank you for attending the Outreach Meeting at the home of [redacted]. To help us with future meetings please fill out and return to my attention the attached evaluation. I have included a Commitment Form and information about the Picket-Contract Captain Orientation for your convenience. Being a Picket-Contract Captain is a great way to meet other writers and play an active role during this historic time. Think of the stories!… If you have any questions feel free to contact me at 323-782-xxxx. Please pass my number along to any of your friends or colleagues who have questions. All the best, Kim

Captain a picket line and make friends? Collect stories???

What the fu——????

Striking isn’t about making friends and collecting glory days stories. It’s a drastic labor action in which people make serious personal sacrifices. If we strike, some people will stop working and never work again.

Strikes are sometimes necessary, but strikes are always bad. Why in God’s name would the Guild be sending out these kinds of smiley-face, “See the world, join the Navy!” kind of messages?

Hey, folks, trench warfare is a great way to make lifelong friends, and just think of the stories!!!!

Yeah.

Hey, Guild. Staffers. People who get paid by our dues. Dig this: we’re writers. We’re better at detecting bullshit in word form than anyone else. Sharpen the internal propaganda skills, or the rank and file are going to start marking this crap as spam.

As someone who has a vested interest in a unified membership should a strike come to pass, I’m telling you…this sort of poorly rendered “these aren’t the droids you’re looking for” Jedi mind trick ain’t gonna cut it.

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I’ve been largely silent on the upcoming WGAw elections, because it all seemed like a bit of a forgone conclusion. The Writers United (WU) slate, headed by Patric Verrone, will almost assuredly be re-elected. WGAw voters tend to be both apathetic and disinterested in switching horses midstream, and we’re certainly about as deep midstream as you can be right now.

But there’s one non-WU that really deserves your attention, not only because of what he’s saying, but because of what WU is saying about him.

He sent out a mailing recently. Here’s what he said.


Hi,

Not being on the WU slate, I wanted to take a moment to introduce myself…

I’m Jeff Kleeman, the ONLY member running for the board who was a former studio executive.

Having almost 2 decades of experience sitting on the other side of the table, I can bring the kind of real world knowledge to our guild that will not only give us a much greater advantage during the upcoming negotiations, but will a